Army Commander's term nears end: What are the possible scenarios?

The term of the Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, is set to conclude on January 10. 

Yet, as of now, there is no consensus among all parties to avert a potential leadership vacuum within the military establishment.

Three possible scenarios are under consideration, each with its complexities and challenges.

The first scenario involves extending the term of the army commander, which has faced opposition from multiple parties for various reasons. One significant concern is that General Aoun's continued tenure could open the door for his presidential candidacy.

The second scenario revolves around appointing a new army commander through a decision made by the Cabinet. This choice would involve four appointments: the army commander, the Chief of Staff, the Director-General of the Army, and the Inspector-General. 

However, this scenario remains uncertain, requiring a Cabinet session with a full quorum of all 24 ministers. Achieving this quorum is highly unlikely due to the Christian component's boycott of caretaker government sessions and Hezbollah's announcement of non-participation in appointment sessions.

The third and perhaps the most progressive scenario entails convening a complete Cabinet session exclusively to appoint the three members of the Military Council: the Chief of Staff, the Director-General, and the Inspector-General. In this scenario, the position of the army commander would remain vacant until General Aoun's retirement, at which point the Chief of Staff would assume command, in line with the National Defense Law.

The feasibility of the third scenario raises questions about whether Prime Minister Najib Mikati will call for a government session and, more importantly, whether parties can reach an agreement on this matter. 

The pivotal concern is how to avoid the potential leadership vacuum within the military establishment, especially considering Lebanon's and the region's security challenges.