Ain al-Assad base: Iran and Israel's past precedents and current concerns

Report by Yazbek Wehbe, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

For the past 12 days since the strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, information about an inevitable Iranian retaliation against Israel has increased. 

Talks about international contacts to mitigate the repercussions of this strike have begun, with US sources even pinpointing the approximate timing and scale of the rockets that may target Israel.

This scene brings back memories of the aftermath of the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force, by a US drone strike near Baghdad Airport on January 3, 2020, and the subsequent Iranian response.

In his book "The Depth of Patience," released exactly a month ago, former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif revealed that former US President Donald Trump received an Iranian notification five days after Soleimani's assassination, and just hours before its execution, regarding a strike on a US military base in Iraq in response to the assassination.

Washington received the notification through the Swiss ambassador in Tehran, who represents American interests there, and also from former Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, according to Iranian sources.

Advance reports of the attack to US forces prompted them to take cover in shelters at Ain al-Assad base, sparing them casualties. The Pentagon identified 109 service members with mild brain concussions.

Just hours after the strike on the US base, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) committed a major mistake - initially denied responsibility - by launching a surface-to-air missile at a Ukrainian civilian plane over Tehran, mistaking it for a US military aircraft preparing to retaliate against Ain al-Assad. This resulted in the deaths of 176 passengers, mostly Iranians and Ukrainians residing in Canada.

The Iranian military later admitted that its air defense system mistakenly shot down the passenger plane as it passed over a sensitive military area.

Will history repeat itself after four years? Will mediators succeed in reaching a specific and precise Iranian response that does not entail a major Israeli retaliation?