Israel's Strategic Considerations Amid Rising Tensions: Rafah, Lebanon, and Prisoner Exchange

A report by Amale Chehadeh, English adaptation by Nadine Sassine

With the possibility of a quick hostages exchange deal diminishing and under international and US pressure to prevent an incursion into Rafah, Israel has expressed readiness to consider a complete withdrawal of its forces from the Netzarim axis.

Security agencies presented an alternative plan to political officials for an incursion into Rafah, to be executed in the Philadelphi corridor, considering it a vital route for smuggling weapons to Hamas and bolstering its capabilities, with limited operations also targeting Rafah.

Israeli concerns about an incursion into Rafah stem from several points, notably:

- Insecurity for the 1.4 million Palestinians residing within

- Threats to the lives of Israeli prisoners

- Potential impact on achieving a hostages exchange deal in the near future
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The strongest motivation for the Philadelphi plan is linked to Israeli security agencies monitoring movements of the Egyptian army near the border, raising concerns about the potential escape of thousands of Gazans from Rafah, including Hamas fighters, towards Egypt.

Developments in Gaza are directly linked to the northern front with Lebanon, where tensions with Hezbollah are escalating.

Here, Israel seeks to disseminate information about its readiness to make adjustments to the border demarcation with Lebanon, provided that Hezbollah members are moved several kilometers away from the border line inland, not north of the Litani River.

Observers suggest that through these points, which some consider to be a softening of its stance, Tel Aviv aims to legitimize a military operation against Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid continued to threaten a comprehensive war against Hezbollah and the occupation of areas in southern Lebanon during talks with his French counterpart.

Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi announced from the northern command that the army is preparing for action in the north.

Threats and the mobilization of armored vehicles and military units on both the northern and southern borders keep Israeli borders from various directions on a powder keg, awaiting either the failure or success of a hostages exchange deal.