Iranian influence 'key' in Lebanon settlement, Israel’s security talks reveal shifting power dynamics: Here are the details

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Amid Israeli expectations that Lebanon will reject the draft settlement with Israel after receiving it from the United States, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer presented the U.S. administration’s expectations for the success of efforts to reach an agreement soon during a security consultation session. 

The session was attended by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and ministers Israel Katz, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Minister Dermer revealed that understandings had been reached with the Americans, which are linked to a document attached to the agreement. 

The document would allow Israel freedom to act, particularly through the air force, if the agreement is violated. Dermer also said Tel Aviv added a condition allowing the Lebanese army to arm itself through a third country.

On the ground, the Israeli army showed a contradiction in its positions on Friday. Just before the second phase of the ground incursion began, the army had declared that it had achieved the goals of Operation “Northern Arrows” and was awaiting a decision from the political leadership to withdraw from Lebanon.

However, the army later reversed its statement, saying the goals had not yet been achieved. It noted that Hezbollah's large stockpiles of weapons, spread across dozens of towns, were preventing the return of settlers to the north.

The army also revealed that one of the challenges it faced was Hezbollah’s use of explosive devices in homes, which recently led to the deaths of seven soldiers and the injury of dozens.

Amid threats from the Minister of Defense to continue fighting until victory over Hezbollah, security and military officials warned of the dangers of negotiating "under fire."

Meanwhile, Israelis considered the talks held by Iranian adviser Ali Larijani in Lebanon to position Iran as the key decision-maker regarding the fighting.

At the same time, the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation, Kan, reported that Western diplomats said Iran’s position on the settlement carried significant weight. It was expected to give the green light for progress toward a settlement but would not allow what they described as "the elimination of Hezbollah."

These developments coincided with a message from a group of soldiers to the army leadership, stating their inability to implement the required plans. The message reignited the debate over recruiting hardline Haredim (ultra-Orthodox Jews) into the army.

After the government canceled approval for the recruitment of 7,000 Haredim, a decree was issued on Friday requiring them to join the service at the Lebanese border first. This decision now poses the greatest challenge to both the military and political institutions.