Airstrikes on Syria: Israel links Syrian rebel offensive to Lebanon ceasefire

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

Israeli officials have drawn a connection between the timing of the armed groups' offensive against Syrian regime forces in northern Syria and the recently established ceasefire in Lebanon.  

While Israeli politicians acknowledge Turkey's role in mobilizing these groups, security experts and analysts argue that recent Israeli airstrikes on Syrian regime positions, Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) sites, and allied factions over the past month have created an opportunity for rebel forces to advance. The situation was further enabled by Hezbollah's preoccupation with its war against Israel.  

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad just 48 hours before the Aleppo offensive not to provoke Israel — specifically concerning arms transfers to Hezbollah via Syrian territory — expressed concern over the potential spillover effects from northern Syria to its southern regions.  

On Friday evening, Netanyahu convened an emergency security consultation by phone to assess the implications of developments in Syria on Israel's border regions and crossings with Lebanon. 

Following the meeting, Israeli authorities announced heightened surveillance of the situation in Syria. 

A security official noted that IRGC forces in Syria had lost significant support after Israel targeted Hezbollah leadership and fighters, paving the way for rebel groups to capture key territories, including Aleppo.  

An Israeli report highlighted that Israel's frequent strikes on pro-Iranian factions in Syria have alleviated pressure on rebel forces on the ground. 

Over the past year, Israel has conducted approximately 70 strikes in Syria, targeting not only border crossings — viewed by Tel Aviv as routes for arms smuggling to Hezbollah — but also Hezbollah's warehouses and facilities within Syrian territory.  

Despite Netanyahu's apprehension about the potential destabilization of Israel's northern border due to events in Aleppo and Idlib, other Israeli officials believe these developments may have short-term benefits. The disruption of weapons smuggling routes to Hezbollah is seen as a possible strategic advantage for Israel.