Army Commander Joseph Aoun’s path to Lebanon presidency hinges on FPM, Amal, Hezbollah votes

 

Amid international envoy talks and internal parliamentary meetings, the January 9 parliamentary session could determine whether Army Commander General Joseph Aoun ascends to Lebanon’s presidency.

For Saudi Arabia and the United States, Aoun represents a figure capable of implementing transformative governance in Lebanon. However, his path to the presidency requires 86 votes in any session, necessary for a constitutional amendment due to his position as a first-class civil servant. This differs from other candidates, who need 86 votes in the first round and 65 votes in subsequent rounds, provided a quorum of at least 86 lawmakers is maintained throughout.

Can Joseph Aoun secure the backing of at least 86 of Lebanon’s 128 members of parliament?

As of now, three major parliamentary blocs remain opposed to Aoun’s candidacy: the Amal-Hezbollah alliance with 30 votes and the Free Patriotic Movement with 13 votes, totaling 43. Excluding these blocs leaves 85 lawmakers, and even if Aoun garners their unanimous support, he would still fall short by one vote. This scenario underscores the difficulty of his candidacy.

Will external pressure influence the outcome? U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein’s talks in Beirut, alongside Saudi emissary Prince Faisal bin Farhan’s discussions and French diplomatic efforts, could play a pivotal role. If one of the three opposing blocs shifts its stance—either through open support or discreetly funneling votes—Aoun’s bid could succeed. Otherwise, the presidential chair in Baabda may remain vacant.

The coming days will reveal whether negotiations lead to a breakthrough or prolong Lebanon’s political deadlock.