Ceasefire fragile as Lebanon weighs diplomacy, possible US-mediated talks with Israel

Report by Toni Mrad, English adaptation by Mariella Succar

Questions remain over whether Lebanese President Joseph Aoun will travel to Washington for meetings that could include a possible encounter with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as indirect diplomatic contacts continue to evolve amid ongoing tensions.

Current indicators suggest that Aoun is unlikely to make the trip, given Israel’s continued failure, according to Lebanese assessments, to uphold commitments discussed during the second round of talks in Washington. 

Those commitments included reducing violations of the ceasefire agreement and halting ongoing demolition and bulldozing operations, as well as attacks on civilians.

As the two-week deadline approaches for the expiration of the second extension of the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, several scenarios are being considered.

First, a fragile ceasefire could be extended for a third time to allow space for a broader U.S.-Iran understanding that may include Lebanon and Israel, or to stabilize the ceasefire in Lebanon and move toward formal negotiations with Israel.

Second, before the deadline expires, Washington could increase pressure on Israel to enforce a more durable ceasefire following repeated violations. Under this scenario, negotiations would then proceed under U.S. sponsorship to address outstanding Lebanese demands.

Those demands include the withdrawal of Israeli forces, the return of detainees and displaced persons, reconstruction efforts, and the full extension of state authority across Lebanese territory.

A potential subsequent phase could include President Aoun traveling to Washington and meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri shares similar objectives with Aoun but rejects direct negotiations with Israel before a complete ceasefire is secured.

Hezbollah’s position, according to a party lawmaker, is that if a full ceasefire agreement is reached, the group would abide by its terms.

All of these developments are expected to be discussed again during upcoming meetings between U.S. envoy Michel Issa and Lebanese officials next week.

Meanwhile, Lebanon’s ambassador to Washington, Nada Hamadeh Moawad, is expected to continue engagements with U.S. officials, including meetings with aides to the U.S. Secretary of State. According to Lebanese media reports, these diplomatic efforts are aimed at solidifying the ceasefire arrangement.