In the context of information circulating about the Lebanese file during the meeting between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, there are different narratives among the Lebanese parties.
As usual, the Lebanese are divided in interpreting these atmospheres according to their interests and perspectives.
Hezbollah considers that all regional developments favor its candidate, while the party's opponents believe that the regional settlement processes must impact Lebanon.
So far, there has been no regional or Arab position indicating support or approval from Arab forces for nominating Sleiman Frangieh.
If such support were available, the number of Frangieh's votes would have increased to 65, while the quorum problem remains, which can be resolved in any way.
The Army Commander's Visit
In this context, there is anticipation for any movement or step taken by Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari, who started his activity in the Lebanese arena with a visit to the Army Commander.
This has significant implications, especially since the issue of agreeing on the Army Commander must be addressed.
The Lebanese are also waiting for the results that may arise from the meeting between Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai and French President Emmanuel Macron and how it will reflect on the domestic scene.
Internationally and regionally, information indicates an understanding among the five countries to give Lebanon a deadline for consensus before June 15.
If that is not achieved, there must be a change in the mechanism and approach. Paris had also obtained this deadline as it welcomes and supports Frangieh's nomination enthusiastically, considering it a realistic and implementable one.
However, France must change its approach if any breach occurs on this front.
Regarding what has gradually leaked about the meeting between Salman and Assad, monitoring sources indicate that the meeting discussed various regional files, including the Lebanese file.
The information confirms that Salman was clear with Assad that he hopes to reach the election of a consensus president in Lebanon before mid-June.
Here, the analyses differ among those who consider the practical interpretation of electing a consensus president as heading toward consensus on Frangieh.
Others believe the opposite, that this aims to seek agreement on another figure who enjoys the approval of the majority of Lebanese and does not represent a victory for one party over the other.
Also mentioned in the meeting, Salman was clear with Assad: "We are preparing to open a new chapter in the entire region, thus closing the pages of the past phase. This requires new approaches and different performances based on the principle that whoever promises the other must commit or fulfill. If we have made a promise, we will abide by it, and if you have made a promise, you are also expected to fulfill it."
Salman also said, "We have decided to open up to the entire region, invest in it, and the agreement between us and the Iranians is deep, serious, and subject to development. This will have implications for Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon."
It is still early to discern the prospects of this new chapter and how it will unfold.
In parallel with these leaks and in light of the opposition forces' inclination to reach an agreement on a candidate to counter Frangieh, similar positions were expressed by the head of the Loyalty to the Resistance parliamentary bloc, MP Mohammed Raad, and the political aide to President Nabih Berri, Ali Hassan Khalil.
They both indicated that the opposition's move to agree on a candidate was for maneuvering and overthrowing the candidate of the Shiite duo, aiming to search for a third candidate.
Hezbollah openly rejected such thinking, making it clear that the party does not accept this approach and emphasizing to its "allies" the necessity of returning to the option of Sleiman Frangieh.
When Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari informed all Lebanese stakeholders that the Kingdom does not veto any presidential candidate, some in Lebanon interpreted this stance as Saudi Arabia not wanting to appear as an obstacle to the presidential agreement.
However, there was prior knowledge that Christian forces and other political factions would not agree.
Consequently, the obstruction would be Lebanese. This leads some to interpret the strong response from Raad and Khalil on the basis that the attempt to find a regional and international settlement linked to Lebanon, and the search for a candidate other than Frangieh, necessitated a firm stance insisting on sticking with Frangieh.
Therefore, the position of Lebanese forces clinging to Frangieh hindered the move toward an alternative. This means that the elements and indications of a settlement have not matured yet.