In the details: What comes next in Lebanon’s weapons plan as pressure mounts on Israel?

Report by Edmond Sassine, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

As Lebanon awaits the launch of the second phase of the weapons-restriction plan—after Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced the state’s readiness to move forward—there is a presidential push for simultaneous statements from relevant domestic and international parties confirming that the area south of the Litani River is free of weapons, as well as for securing Israeli acknowledgment of this.

At the same time, the Lebanese effort is awaiting steps by Israel in return for the implementation of the first phase of the plan. These steps could include a withdrawal from the five occupied points or progress on the issue of Lebanese detainees.

In military and technical terms, a Lebanese military source said in recent days that the success of the second phase depends on the success of the first. An assessment will therefore be conducted to identify remaining challenges, analyze strengths and weaknesses, and submit the findings to the Cabinet. 

Based on the Cabinet’s decision, the timing of implementation could vary from one track to another.

Pending the assessment, the army’s plan remains in place. Its second phase calls for restricting weapons north of the Litani River, specifically in the area between the Litani and the Awali rivers.

Areas north of the Litani were subjected to intense and repeated airstrikes during the war and after the ceasefire agreement, including in Iqlim al-Tuffah, Zahrani, Nabatieh, and other regions, extending to the Sidon district. 

Under the plan, the phase covering north of the Litani would be followed by Beirut and the Bekaa.

The first and second phases of the weapons-restriction plan are expected to be addressed in a speech by Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem on Sunday.

It is also noted that Hezbollah, which maintains ongoing contacts with Egyptian mediation channels, has not responded positively to proposals calling for freezing or neutralizing weapons north of the Litani in exchange for launching negotiations with Israel over unresolved issues. 

Among the ideas raised was a joint visit by the Hezbollah-Amal Movement political duo to Cairo. The recent visit by Egypt’s foreign minister to Lebanon was also accompanied by proposals to disarm north of the Litani in parallel with the start of negotiations.

Hezbollah’s lack of positive engagement with these proposals stems from its view that they go beyond the ceasefire agreement, which it says it has respected while Israel violates it daily. For Hezbollah, restricting weapons north of the Litani is an internal matter tied to the national security strategy, with no Israeli role in it.