After a long wait and a journey that took a few hours by land and 14 years in politics, Former President Michel Aoun visited Damascus.
To hold a quasi-official reception ceremony for Aoun (accompanied by his advisor Pierre Raffoul) and to have Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad warmly welcoming his guest does not necessarily imply a readiness to fulfill Aoun's demands.
And for Aoun to leave the meeting with a "slight" smile and a "fraternal" statement after a 45-minute meeting and a two-and-a-half-hour working lunch also does not mean that he left Damascus with the key secret word regarding the nomination of the Marada Movement Leader, Sleiman Frangieh.
The political atmosphere appeared indifferent upon receiving the news of Aoun's reception in Damascus, as the elements of surprise or anticipation for the unexpected were absent from the event. Many knew that Aoun had requested an appointment months ago, and only a week ago did friends of Syria learn of the visit's date, specifically Haret Hreik, and Bnashii.
However, this does not diminish the importance of some conclusions related to this development, especially as they confirmed two points:
First, Syria knows that Aoun has turned away from hostility towards Syria and all the bold positions he has taken regarding the war on Syria and the issue of Syrian refugees.
Perhaps it has also "understood" his lack of visits throughout his term, despite its knowledge of Bassil's commitment to former PM Saad Hariri on the eve of the presidential settlement in 2016 to keep the official channels closed with Damascus.
Second, Bassil, despite his aligning with the opposition forces regarding the name of former minister Jihad Azour, still wishes to discontinue Frangieh's nomination and restore what was severed with Hezbollah simultaneously, hoping that Syria can be the way. Perhaps he believed that Aoun could fix what he had disrupted in various affairs, and he began to rely on him until he nearly exhausted his power. He did so for the first time during a meeting of the Strong Lebanon bloc following sharp divisions among its members over Azour's nomination, and he repeated it a second time during the FPM's dinner in Jbeil, and a third time during the meeting of the Political Council, in addition to involving Aoun in the communications with Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi.
However, Bassil's 'exploitation of the symbolism of Michel Aoun' and his position contributed to the escalation of the political situation within his movement, confirming its distinct stance as it became apparent. Bassil misjudged the situation and continued making the same mistake by using the same tactics with his allies.
The warm reception does not affect the presidential file by pressuring Hezbollah or Frangieh
It is no longer a secret to many that Damascus had previously rejected Basil's requests to visit, and this is not related to a personal or political stance toward the man but instead, because he insisted on going there unofficially.
Since Syria will no longer give free gifts to anyone, such requests were also rejected for officials close to Aoun during his term, and Damascus consistently insisted that the relationship between the two countries should be formal.
However, with all the developments that have occurred in the presidential file and the failure of all his attempts to push Hezbollah to withdraw Frangieh's nomination, Bassil believed that Aoun could mediate with Syria for assistance, knowing that this cannot be available within the natural course of action.
Undoubtedly, the conversation between Aoun and Assad will take days, and perhaps weeks, to clarify its contents. But sources can easily estimate what Aoun conveyed, which undoubtedly included "explaining the disagreement with Hezbollah, the stance regarding Frangieh's election, and emphasizing the Christian position and the need to avoid confrontation," advising everyone not to go further than necessary in speculations because "the file is in the hands of Hezbollah, in addition to the ongoing coordination and communication between Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and President Assad," without "neglecting Frangieh's position and status in Syria."
While sources insist on the finality of the position that Aoun must have heard, a question remains about Syria setting a date for a visit during the intersection of the Free Patriotic Movement with the opposition forces (Change MPs, Kataeb, Lebanese Forces in support of nominating Azour, on the eve of the presidential election session called for by Speaker of the House Nabih Berri on the 14th of this month."
Some sources related to Syria answer with another question: "What would Syria lose by hosting Aoun? It could have achieved a great gain if he had visited when he was president, but it won't gain or lose anything when hosting him as General Michel Aoun. Damascus' doors are open to everyone, and it is natural that they are opened to him."
Furthermore, other sources considered that visiting Syria is nothing more than a gesture of gratitude for the positions Aoun has taken towards it during its crisis.
However, these stances cannot affect the presidential file, neither in pressuring Hezbollah to withdraw Frangieh's nomination nor intervening with Frangieh himself to withdraw his candidacy.
The scene has now changed
Syria, like all parties in the axis to which it belongs, finds that the post-Iranian-Saudi agreement and the Arab opening to Syria is a phase of reaping the rewards after years of sacrifices. This phase will not be limited to the calculations of personal accounts and misguided bets.