The meeting of the Quintet in Doha last Monday was not for "discussing mechanisms to assist Lebanon in overcoming the state of political paralysis and its resulting complications," according to the concluding statement.
This announcement marked the end of the French initiative and the withdrawal of the authorization given to Paris to solve the presidential vacancy crisis in Lebanon.
This article was originally published in translated from the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar.
According to informed sources, the meeting was convened to discuss one matter only: Transitioning to the option of the third candidate, Army Commander General Joseph Aoun.
The goal was to "convince" the Amal Movement and Hezbollah, particularly the latter, of this nomination.
They also explored a list of pressures that could be exerted to achieve this goal, which included many ideas, such as preventing tourists from visiting Lebanon to strike the tourism season.
Several political parties are still trying to interpret the escalating position of the five countries (the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar) and why Riyadh decided to distance Lebanon from its open policy in the region.
Additionally, they seek to understand what prompted Paris to set aside its initiative and who convinced Cairo and Doha that it is possible to bypass the opinion of a key player in Lebanon, Hezbollah. Has Washington decided to redraw the confrontation map based on the developments following the session on June 14?
Sources familiar with the Doha meeting conveyed that discussions focused on "the required pressure to push Hezbollah not only to withdraw support for Sleiman Frangieh's nomination but to go much further than the presidency."
As a result, the upcoming days will be filled with political, economic, financial, and even security pressures.
Moreover, the sources confirmed that the battle in the next stage "will be different, clearer, without intermediaries."
In this context, the following conclusions can be summarized:
The statement issued after the Doha meeting carried the tone of escalating statements reminiscent of the period before the Saudi-Iranian agreement, sending a clear message that Lebanon is outside the framework of settlement and that Saudi Arabia's position on the Lebanese file has not changed.
According to multiple informed sources, Riyadh, represented by the advisor within the General Secretariat of the Saudi Council of Ministers, Nizar bin Suleiman Al-Aloula, was the most rigid and united in response to the assessment of the French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian.
Al-Aloula was the first to reject the idea of dialogue and the first to talk about sanctions, which the United States supported. As for the French, who seemed helpless and powerless, their questions focused on an alternative to their initiative and how to convince Hezbollah and the Amal Movement.
Furthermore, the call for expediting presidential elections implies moving towards holding open election sessions and closing the door to discussing the dialogue proposed by Paris. Among the ideas presented in the Doha meeting was the idea of banning travel to Lebanon to strike the tourism season.
However, the stage of distracting political forces with French initiatives and their envoys' back-and-forth trips has ended. There is something bigger than France beyond its capabilities, limits, and margin. The statement specified the criteria for the next president as someone who "embodies integrity, unifies the nation, and prioritizes the country's interests." This practically responds to the requirements set by the other party and confirms the end of the French initiative, marking a new phase.
What was not addressed in the statement can be summarized as follows:
- Agreement on the failure to elect any of the candidates, Sleiman Frangieh and Jihad Azour, to the presidency.
- Launching a new phase for the third candidate, the Army Commander, supported by Washington and Doha and whose nomination is not opposed by Riyadh, while being considered a good option by Paris and Cairo.
- Paving all the roads leading to Baabda for Joseph Aoun, politically and constitutionally, through the Parliament, and exerting all possible pressures to push the political forces to adopt his nomination with an absolute majority, similar to what happened with former President Michel Sleiman in 2008.
- Moreover, it is now Qatar's turn instead of France. It is known that Doha was the first to promote the Army Commander and tried to convince the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, to support him. Therefore, it is expected that the Qataris will embark on a new round of engagement with the political forces to continue their previous movement, which took the form of "assistance in bridging viewpoints," but this time, under a clear title supporting Joseph Aoun.
The sources affirmed that the new round has already begun, and there is an ongoing engagement with various political forces to persuade them of the option of Joseph Aoun.
Additionally, some incentives go beyond politics, as substantial budgets have been allocated based on the size, relevance, and influence of the blocs within the Parliament. The sources confirmed that discussions with the blocs have reached this point.
Still, the sources urged not to underestimate the implementation of what was outlined in Doha as if it were a predetermined fate.
All parties in the Quintet meeting realized from experience that the cost of any such venture will be significant, as it involves targeting a major party in the country and isolating it.
While the decision to declare Joseph Aoun's candidacy has been made, it does not mean Frangieh's candidacy has been folded.
On the contrary, a long and challenging phase may approach the limits of unexpected confrontation. The other party (specifically Hezbollah) will likely adhere even more firmly to its candidate in response to this escalation.
Moreover, this declaration reshuffles all the cards and folds, in a way, the page of the "alignment" between the FPM and the so-called "opposition," returning the FPM to the same trench with Hezbollah, if not behind the Amal Movement and Hezbollah's candidate, at least facing the candidate of the Quintet.