Bassil-Hezbollah dialogue: The President-maker's strategy

Recently, an unexpected development has taken place in the communication lines between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM).

Dialogue between the two parties has resumed and is rapidly gaining momentum, coinciding with the visit of the French envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian. The increased pace of dialogue is attributed to the outcomes of the Quintet Meeting in Doha, which sought to encircle the French solo initiative and reassert certain specifications.

This article was originally published in and translated from the online newspaper Al Anbaa.

However, the Amal-Hezbollah duo viewed this move negatively, considering it an attempt to bypass nominating Sleiman Frangieh or the core of Paris's initiative.

On the other hand, Gebran Bassil viewed it suspiciously, expecting that the current process would ultimately enhance General Joseph Aoun's chances of assuming the presidency. However, FPM sources believe that Frangieh's accession is easier than Joseph Aoun's, making this a fundamental bet for Hezbollah to reclaim Bassil's chances.

Before delving into the details, an essential question must be raised regarding the essence of Le Drian's dialogues with Bassil and Hezbollah. Did he propose to them to agree between themselves to thwart other forces, internally and externally, from obstructing the French initiative? The answer to this question remains pending, but it remains plausible given the evolving negotiation process between Bassil and Hezbollah.

The negotiation takes place directly between Bassil and Hezbollah's liaison and coordination officer, Wafiq Safa. Later, it may include Hezbollah's political assistant, Hussein Khalil, leading to a meeting between Michel Aoun and Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

Bassil is attempting to position himself as the pivotal figure in these negotiations, aiming to renew dialogue with Hezbollah based on a fixed principle: any agreement between them will produce a president for the republic. This positioning turns him into a president-maker, the only one capable of initiating and acting promptly, unlike other forces that remain steadfast in their positions.

Gradually, Bassil fiercely opposed Frangieh and even attempted to align with the opposition, proposing a third candidate, but failed. He then reopened direct communication with Hezbollah, dropping the preconditions. In response, Hezbollah confirmed to Bassil that they remained committed to Frangieh's nomination and Bassil should negotiate within this framework.

The impact of these negotiations should not be underestimated, mainly since any progress in their relations could produce new developments capable of electing a president. The constitutional quorum and Christian consensus could be met.

The basis of the negotiation is not for Bassil to gain something, politically or for his party. He has turned down offers to name the army commander or central bank governor and share in forming the government, seeking a significant and broader equation by requiring it to adhere to prior approval by the parliament for expanded administrative decentralization and the financial trust fund.

According to what the sources indicate, Bassil handed Hezbollah a copy of studies and projects prepared by the FPM on the two issues, and Hezbollah is working on studying them.

Practically, Bassil wanted the parliament to pass the two essential legislations for the two projects before electing a president, leaving the implementation for after the new era.

His statement, "give us these two projects, and take concessions from us for six years," explicitly references Frangieh's nomination. He also argues there is no need to wait until September; dialogue can be intensified in August before Le Drian returns to achieve agreements. This aligns with information from sources tracking Le Drian's second visit to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who told the French envoy that they could agree on a common framework for electing a president in September if Lebanese people accept dialogue and rely on the ongoing negotiations between Bassil and Hezbollah.

Bassil knows that negotiating the details of the decentralization and credit fund projects will take time to reach an agreement.

Does he also rely on time to reach a post-Joseph Aoun era and want to avoid being caught between two choices, either Frangieh or the army commander?

Meanwhile, Hezbollah believes that time is closed for such negotiations, and things may become evident within the next few weeks.