Qatar's emerging role: Paving the way for the Army Commander

As the presidential vacuum enters its first year, the political scene appears bleak, signaling a highly dangerous phase for the country. The security situation, already precarious, is now at stake.

This article was originally published in, translated from the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar.

The ongoing paralysis takes precedence over all else, with an internal and external deadlock due to political disputes and regional-international divisions.

Furthermore, the meeting held by the five countries participating in the Quintet Committee for Lebanon, composed of France, the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, did not bring any new perspectives.

On the contrary, the New York meeting revealed a united front against French efforts, with Washington, Riyadh, and Doha criticizing "the French role and its failure to unify or even persuade the Lebanese to engage in dialogue." They also set a specific deadline for France to achieve a solution, threatening to suspend aid to the Lebanese army.

In this context, it has been noted that Doha has begun to act more actively and broadly after 'discreetly mourning' the French role. It didn't take long after the New York meeting for a Qatari envoy to arrive in Beirut to engage with political forces.

However, informed sources said, "Qatar has been preparing to inherit France's role in Lebanon for some time, but they were waiting for local and international cover."

They also pointed out that "Doha has effectively received external approval from the United States and Saudi Arabia to take over instead of France." But Qatar is also seeking to secure a local agency from the political forces to officially assume the role of a mediator in resolving the crisis.

Therefore, the Qatari envoy has initiated meetings with political officials for two purposes:

First, to gain acceptance of Doha's role instead of Paris.

Second, to negotiate the name of the Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, who has become the real candidate for an external consensus. This is despite the Qataris presenting a list of several names, including former Minister Ziad Baroud and Acting General Security Chief General Elias El-Baissari.

Al-Akhbar also learned that Qatar is considering working independently and separately from the Quintet members to achieve something resembling the "Doha Agreement" of 2008 and reach a balanced settlement.

Moreover, Qatar relies on its good relations with various political forces and the "services" it will provide in exchange for persuading the political parties to accept the settlement and the Army Commander.

Additionally, Qatar always expresses its readiness to undertake the economic and financial role that Riyadh refrains from. This includes re-supporting the banking sector by providing a significant deposit to the Central Bank and initiating investment projects in the country, especially in sectors in need of substantial support.

The Qatari initiative comes amid escalating political tensions, especially between the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, and the Christian opposition forces to the principle of dialogue.

But information has leaked about a message sent by Berri to the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, to determine his stance on the dialogue, with an emphasis that Berri will preside over and lead it, and it will be at the level of parliamentary blocs, restricted to discussing names.

Thus, Bassil responded, "I do not understand how insisting on dialogue to elect a president is considered a rejection of dialogue. Every matter has its conditions and circumstances for it to succeed."

He wondered, "If we say that we must agree through dialogue on the broad outlines of the covenant's program so that we can elect a president based on it and succeed in his tenure, are we rejecting dialogue, or are we keen on the success of the covenant?"

He added, "If we say that party leaders must participate in the dialogue to make decisions, not just talk, are we rejecting dialogue? We have said and repeated that we favor serious dialogue that succeeds, and those who do not want dialogue refuse to secure the conditions for its success."