The discussions and assessments regarding the possibility of the ongoing war in Gaza spilling over into a new front involving Hezbollah continue to receive special coverage from media and American research centers.
This article was originally published in, translated from the Arab outlet of Asharq Al-Awsat.
While some believe that what has occurred on the northern front of Israel has not exceeded what is referred to as the "rules of engagement" established after the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, others see the chances of the situation escalating into an open confrontation as still highly dangerous.
Despite this, Iranian tension is noticeable regarding the possibility of the American-Western alignment behind Israel leading Iran and its armed "militias" in the region to be the second target, after Hamas, through an attempt to "Daeshify" its militias to deal a decisive blow to them, thus altering the rules of the game in the region.
This is taking place in light of the clear weakness of major international powers like China and Russia to influence events.
Some interpret the visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian to what Tehran calls the "Axis of Resistance" as an expression of this concern, despite his warnings and calls to Washington to advise Israel to "avoid a regional war" at a time when Hezbollah is exercising strict discipline to avoid breaching the "rules of engagement."
This interpretation is reinforced by the tense tone of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, in denying any involvement by Tehran in the attack carried out by Mohammed Deif, the commander of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, on Israel, and the phone call made by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi with Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman.
However, Paul Salem, the president of the Middle East Institute in Washington, says that Iran's denial of its involvement in the attack is preliminary so that it does not face a direct accusation of responsibility for it. However, at the same time, Amir-Abdollahian's visit may be in the opposite direction.
Salem told Asharq Al-Awsat that the greater danger, as Abdollahian stated, comes from another front, possibly through Syria, where we have seen Israeli airstrikes on the airports of Damascus and Aleppo in recent hours.
Despite Hezbollah's presence in Syria, the Syrian front is not as strong as the Lebanese front, and Iran can use it without breaching the "rules of the game."
Nevertheless, The Washington Post cited a secret US intelligence document that "a large-scale attack by Hezbollah is unlikely." US intelligence analysts believe that starting from the beginning of this year, there has been a predictable balance, although still violent, between Israel and Hezbollah, reducing the risk of a large-scale war this year.
These assumptions are now being tested following the Hamas attack, which surprised the Israeli and American officials almost completely.
According to the document leaked on the "Discord" chat platform, Israel and Hezbollah took steps to "maintain readiness." Still, they remained "within historical patterns of confrontation," meaning avoiding casualties and responding to provocations proportionally.
According to US analysis, "even during periods of escalating tensions," Israel and Hezbollah intended to "demonstrate strength while avoiding escalation."
For example, the document shows that Israel may carry out sabotage operations in Lebanon or fire at empty land, while Hezbollah downs an Israeli drone or fires missiles at the northern part of the country.
These are provocative acts but are designed to avoid casualties. Each side can prove to the other that it is ready and capable of striking without igniting a wider conflict.
However, the analysis points to other factors that could upset this balance, including "Hezbollah's inability to restrain Palestinian militants" like Hamas, which also operates in Lebanon.
Salem says that the war may result in a different scene in the coming weeks, if not in the coming months, especially since the Israeli army is carrying out its operations step by step. Israel enjoys American and Western cover that prevents it from being hasty.
If Israel prevails in this war, it means the fall of Hamas and its disappearance from the scene. This would be an unacceptable outcome for Iran and Hezbollah, and they may strategically decide to open a second front so that Hamas does not lose.
Israel has no interest in opening a second front now. Still, Iran may have an interest in it, but not at this stage, except for sending fiery messages, as is happening occasionally on the Lebanese-Israeli border.
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy's Matthew Levitt says, "I think a lot of people have made assumptions about the extent to which Hamas and Hezbollah will be deterred."
Although he widely agrees with the US intelligence assessment, Levitt now believes that Hezbollah will likely benefit from the war in the south, which has consumed much of the Israeli army's attention.
He said, "I see that Hezbollah is gradually trying to change the rules of the game, and I expect small things to happen along the northern border from time to time, where Hezbollah is trying to remind of its presence."
Amid changes in the rhetoric of Hezbollah leaders, stating that they are not neutral in this battle and are ready "whenever the time comes for any action," such provocations carry the risk of escalation, especially if Hezbollah carries out limited strikes that ultimately result in the killing of Israeli soldiers or civilians, according to US intelligence analysis.
Levitt said, "The possibility of misjudgment is exceptionally high."