Do war conditions necessitate the election of a president in Lebanon? The question seems out of the ordinary and unreal. However, some political movements internally, along with diplomatic communications, are attempting to impose a solution.
Army Leadership
Internally, a political movement led by the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, has emerged. This is a significant step with two main dimensions.
The first dimension is Bassil's success in initiating the formation of a unified Lebanese position linked to two points. The first point is to avoid Lebanon's involvement in the war, and the second is to prepare for it if imposed on the country, forming a supportive stance for Hezbollah. Thus, Bassil succeeded in reshaping his position and arranging his relationship with allies, especially Hezbollah and the Marada Movement.
The second dimension is related to finding a solution to the issue of army leadership, especially amid ongoing efforts to prevent a vacuum in the leadership position, amplified by developments in the South.
There is a Lebanese and external intersection regarding preventing a vacuum in the leadership position, and this matter cannot be left unresolved until the last moment.
Given that this position has become known and clear, both internally and externally, specific options emerge: either extending the term of the army commander, appointing a new commander, or appointing a Chief of Staff from the Druze sect.
There is information suggesting that Jumblatt does not want a Druze to lead the army in these circumstances. Some information indicates that Bassil puts a fundamental condition, in case he agrees to extend Joseph Aoun's term, that there must be a commitment by others not to elect him as president.
With Jumblatt and Berri
At the end of his meeting with Jumblatt, Bassil stated that he does not favor extending the term of the army commander but is open to appointing a Chief of Staff. However, there is an emphasis on the necessity of the army commander remaining in his position. The overall meeting included discussions on all the possibilities regarding the potential escalation of conflict and how to deal with the existing conditions.
Here, there was a convergence on a unified stance regarding developments and the necessity of forming and crystallizing it, in addition to the possibility of reaching an agreement on the election of a president.
As for the meeting with Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, the discussion was also intense, revolving around the developments in the South, the issue of army leadership, and even the presidential elections.
Bassil's visit to Berri and Sleiman Frangieh remains a positive symbolic gesture, perhaps not necessarily indicating that the man takes a positive stance toward nominating the president of the Marada Movement, but rather reconnecting broken lines. Some information suggests that Berri wished Bassil success in his visit to Sleiman Frangieh, which some interpret as Frangieh succeeding in convincing Bassil to agree to his election.
Bassil's visit to Frangieh carries many implications, especially as he conducts it after a contact between him and the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.
Nasrallah had asked Bassil to agree to Frangieh's election in exchange for being the guarantee for all his demands. In this, Bassil re-establishes a connection that was cut, especially since, on the commemoration of October 13, he was clear in saying, "No one should bet on the events in Gaza or the South to impose a president on the Republic."
Some sources from the Free Patriotic Movement say that Bassil is still betting on reaching an understanding on a presidential candidate other than the army commander and Frangieh.
Hence, there is much talk about serious discussions on the election of a president, especially with the recorded visit of the French presidential envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, last week to Qatar. He met with officials there to explore putting Lebanon aside from the conflict circle and the possibility of reaching an agreement on the election of a new president.