In limbo: The National Moderation Bloc's struggle with slow progress

After a few weeks since the National Moderation Bloc's Presidential initiative's launch, its outcomes seem undecided. They fluctuate between negative and positive climates, with no more than a fifty percent success rate. 

This article was originally published in, translated from the Lebanese newspaper al-Liwaa.

This indicates that the presidential endeavor requires more effort, which the Quintet Committee may again undertake to dispel any talk of suspending its work. 

The integration of the committee's work with the bloc's initiative seems evident, especially since its ambassadors supported it in their recent meeting.

The entry of Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri into the fray, confirming his leadership of the dialogue, puts the bloc's mission in a difficult position, especially as parliamentary blocs have expressed reservations about the dialogue. 

While Berri's statement prompted responses, the presidential endeavor, which promotes the third candidate before the constitutional election session, has not yet reached a stage of complete failure.

This endeavor certainly involves navigating through mines; it could soon become a tangible reality if not careful. Will a new development be announced, or will the endeavor regress toward declaring failure? 

According to sources, the bloc's endeavor will not be suspended unless obstacles persist, undermining it or imposing demands. However, informed political sources clarify that the moderation initiative has not ended but has slowed down due to the lack of new developments. 

The vision regarding the dialogue or consultation is contradictory, with each side interpreting it differently regarding the chairmanship of the consultation. Berri has settled this by stating that he will preside over the consultation session, thus determining the framework within which it will proceed. 

Regarding the National Moderation Bloc, it will adapt its movements within this framework, but it is unclear where it might lead, as it has lost some momentum since its inception.

As for Qatar's movements, sources indicate that the Quintet Committee is united in form but not in substance or action. Therefore, the US ambassador acts independently, while the Qatari ambassador acts alone. 

There are Qatari invitations for Lebanese officials to visit Doha, and the Egyptian ambassador is searching for a role through his meetings. 

Meanwhile, the French ambassador is attempting to balance between all ambassadors and play a mediating role, indicating that there is no clear decision within the committee. This allows for side treatments for each ambassador and team regarding the communications conducted.

Sources confirm that Qatari movements are the most present, and through communications with political leaders, Qatar's endeavor is expected to become more interactive. 

There is anticipation and expectation for what might emerge from this activity, indicating that the Saudi side is somewhat uneasy about Qatar's movements. 

However, the US ambassador, who is participating in the Quintet Committee meetings, does not expect a unified decision from it, as reaching such a decision is challenging.

Qatar's endeavor, which the Quintet Committee considers appropriate, is the third option among the names proposed, with Colonel George Khoury being the most advanced.

This option requires time; thus, the stage remains within the context of testing the waters, with incomplete ideas, incomplete positions, and sometimes vague stances, as everyone is tied to the Gaza issue. 

Without resolving this issue, no progress will be made regarding the Lebanese presidency, at least in the foreseeable future.

Therefore, the presidential movement will continue to witness fluctuations and the chances of any incomplete initiative, with efforts persisting even if the desired results are not achieved. 

Faced with this reality, compounded by local contradictions, the vacancy will persist and extend further.