On April 15th, a war erupted between the Sudanese Army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), with both sides initially believing they could swiftly secure victory. However, after four months of conflict, the army lost full control of Khartoum, and the RSF lost its political legitimacy, according to experts.
Military analyst Mohammed Abdel Kareem states, "The war in Sudan has extended far longer than anticipated, and much longer than its planners had estimated. No one expected it to last more than a couple of weeks, at worst."
He adds that the army believed the conflict would be resolved quickly, given its knowledge of the RSF's weaponry and the presence of officers deployed to work with the RSF.
After four months, at least 3,900 people have been killed, over four million have been displaced, and the war continues.
A former Sudanese army officer, who requested anonymity, states that the RSF leadership "rearranged its supply lines, focusing on controlling the entrances to the capital." RSF forces control the western entrance to Khartoum, connecting the capital to the Darfur and Kordofan states at the western border of Omdurman (a suburb of Khartoum). They also control the road linking the capital to the central and eastern states of Sudan.
The former officer adds that the army chose to protect its key bases, while the RSF gained ground in residential areas where it had established its headquarters. Since the start of the war, the RSF has taken control of numerous homes, hospitals, and other infrastructure.
Abdel Kareem emphasizes that this war, being urban warfare, fundamentally relies on infantry forces.
However, for years the army has deemphasized the role of infantry in such confrontations, relying on the People's Defense Force volunteers during the war in South Sudan (which gained independence in 2011). Subsequently, during the conflict in Darfur, the army utilized the Border Guards, tribal Arab forces rather than regular army units. After that, they turned to the RSF.
Similarly, researcher Alex Duval warns that the RSF's military gains have come at a political cost, as their actions have caused them to lose public sympathy due to the atrocities committed, including extrajudicial executions, rape, and looting.
Duval affirms that the First Vice President has gained political power but lacks charisma and remains unpopular.
Interestingly, although the war initially appeared as a power struggle between two generals, it has evolved into a more complex conflict with multiple overlapping actors, as both sides have called for general mobilization.
The call for mobilization has opened doors for Islamist groups, and in the context of the army, this has allowed Islamists to gain prominence. However, their participation, along with others, is likely to prolong the war and complicate Sudan's diplomatic relations.
Furthermore, the RSF relies on enlisting Arab tribes from Darfur for support, and some estimates suggest that the RSF's numbers have now reached around 120,000, up from the initial 60,000.
These recruits fight for various reasons, some to support their kin while others are motivated by financial gains, a resource readily available due to RSF leader Hemeti's control over gold mines.
The conflict's expansion into new cities continues daily, while diplomatic efforts to find a political solution seem blocked.
A Western diplomat suggests that the war could last for years, highlighting the complexity of Sudan's ongoing struggles.
AFP