Army Commander Joseph Aoun could become president: Former diplomat Schenker

Former US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker denied the existence of an American blockade of Lebanon in an interview with Asas Media. 

"This is a theory promoted by Hezbollah; you have a government that avoids implementing reforms. No one can help Lebanon if it does not help itself, and Lebanon is not in crisis but adapting to the existing situation."

In the interview with Asas Media, Schenker considered that the agreement to demarcate the maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel was the most important political event in Lebanon during 2022. 

According to him, it is the first recognition by the Lebanese government of the existence of Israel, and the most important thing is that it is between Hezbollah and Israel. 

As for the drones that Hezbollah launched before signing the agreement, it considered creating a state of escalation and threatening war if the deal was not achieved. 

Schenker added that the party knows that the Israeli government does not want war, which prompted it to threaten border escalation.

He also pointed out that Lebanon will not be able to benefit from gas extraction in the meantime, as extraction may take up to seven years. 

Moreover, he pointed out that the money may end up reaching the corrupt elite, while the Lebanese would not benefit from it.

He stressed that the reforms of the International Monetary Fund are an essential entry point for benefiting from the oil wealth if it exists, saying, "Lebanon cannot benefit seriously in the absence of reforms and transparency. It has not taken any step toward implementing the fund's conditions. Lebanon may or may also not find natural gas in its fields. There is no proof until this moment, but this country is not a suitable environment for investment until now."

Schenker expected that the army commander, General Joseph Aoun, would be elected president within 3 or 4 months.

The former American official, who is highly interested in following up on the Lebanese situation, does not give much importance to the possibility that the head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), MP Gebran Bassil, will obstruct the election of Joseph Aoun if Hezbollah decides to elect him at the appropriate moment. 

He pointed out that the party did not object to the election of Joseph Aoun, who did not constitute an obstacle to the party's movement for complete freedom in the regions of the south. 

"A few days ago, the party killed a member of the UNIFIL forces, and there will be no serious investigation, and justice will not be achieved," Schenker added.

He also considered that the army commander could balance his good relations with officials in Washington. 

"At the same time, he [Joseph Aoun] was careful not to be a factor of nuisance or to confront Hezbollah directly. That is why we did not see any action by the army regarding Hezbollah's activities," the Former US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs added.