Lebanon's national dialogue stalls: Is a political settlement possible?

A recent invitation by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to hold a national dialogue has diverted attention from the anticipated visit of French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian later this month.

However, Berri's attempt to break the political stalemate and gather various political factions encountered significant obstacles even before the dialogue commenced.

The seven-day dialogue initiative faced setbacks even before its launch.

Although the Maronite Patriarch Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, called for participating in Berri's dialogue without preconditions, Christian parties, particularly those considering themselves the vanguard against the Amal-Hezbollah duo and their allies, the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb, saw no value in the dialogue.

They believe any talks would be futile, predetermined to fail, as Geagea, the leader of the Lebanese Forces, stated, "We are ready to bear the vacuum during this period, but we are not ready to bear their corruption and mismanagement." This is what the Kataeb Party head reiterated as well.

Is it possible to achieve the goals of this dialogue without the parties sitting together and reaching a presidential agreement?

Such an outcome is possible under the following conditions:

1-     The Amal-Hezbollah duo must abandon their candidate, Sleiman Frangieh, and seek a third candidate, an unlikely scenario today.

2-     Frangieh must announce his withdrawal from the presidential race, an improbable move at the moment.

3-     The opposition must agree to elect Frangieh, another challenging prospect.

4-     The opposition must secure 65 votes for its candidate to prevent the Amal-Hezbollah duo and their allies from obstructing the second round, another seemingly unattainable objective.

5-     The Amal-Hezbollah duo must convince the head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), Gebran Bassil, to vote for Frangieh. This step seemed unlikely as Bassil now represents a Christian cover for Frangieh.

Undoubtedly, all these conditions appear insurmountable. They are the same obstacles preventing the election of a president—a president who is not the opposition's candidate or Hezbollah's nominee.

If dialogue is rejected today and tomorrow, is it time to pursue a settlement before it is too late?