The Prisoner Exchange: Prelude to Ceasefire or Continuation of the Gaza War?

Could the first prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hamas mark the beginning of the end for the ground incursion into the Gaza Strip and, consequently, the Gaza war?

This question topped the agenda for Israelis just twenty-four hours before the commencement of the release of prisoners in a ceasefire lasting at least four days.

The Security Cabinet, criticized by former military and security officials, chose to convey a message through its Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Yoav Golan. 

In this message, Golan affirmed that the agreement would not deter them from continuing the fight in the Gaza depths until the eradication of Hamas and the guarantee of the security of residents in the south.

However, the efforts of Golan and Benjamin Netanyahu did not convince military and security entities, reiterating that it is impossible to simultaneously achieve the elimination of Hamas and the release of prisoners. 

These entities considered that directly engaging in the exchange process would prompt the remaining families of the prisoners to demand the immediate release of their loved ones, making it a top national goal. 

This, in turn, would prevent the army from continuing its operations in the strip under the pressure of the families' cries in the streets.

Moreover, these entities believe that Hamas will not allow the release of the last batch of prisoners, including soldiers and conscripts unless a formal announcement of the end of the war is made. This dilemma takes center stage in current discussions in Israel.

In addition to the difficulty of continuing the fighting with the return of Israeli prisoners, Tel Aviv faces more than one obstacle, including international and US pressure to end the war. 

 

There is a fear that the resumption of fighting could ignite the northern front with Lebanon and escalate into a regional war, an outcome not supported by any party.