Regional stability at stake: Avoiding full-scale war as Hezbollah prepares inevitable response to Israel

Report by Yazbek Wehbe, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

In the past 48 hours, intensive communications have shaped the expectation of an inevitable yet calibrated Israeli strike that avoids escalating into a full-blown war in Lebanon and the region. 

However, the outcome remains contingent on the nature, scope, and aftermath of this strike, as well as Hezbollah's response.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin supported Israel's right to retaliate, expressing doubt that such actions would inevitably lead to war between Israel and Hezbollah. 

The United States seems to be working to facilitate a calculated Israeli response to the incident in Majdal Shams, one that can be quickly contained and prevent the escalation into a broader regional conflict.

Hezbollah has stated that any retaliation to an expected Israeli strike is inevitable, with its forces on high alert.

Yet, the nature of Hezbollah's retaliation will be determined by its leadership, based on the scale of Israeli action and the resulting threats. 

Despite receiving requests from Lebanese officials to refrain from responding, Hezbollah has firmly rejected these pleas, emphasizing its unwillingness to establish new rules of engagement.

Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib has received numerous Arab and international calls urging Lebanon to ask Hezbollah to exercise restraint. In response, Bou Habib has called on these nations to pressure the Netanyahu government, warning that any risky moves could trigger a regional war that neither Lebanon nor Hezbollah desires.

Western officials have assured Bou Habib that the anticipated Israeli strike will be limited, sparing Beirut, the southern suburbs, the airport, and major urban centers.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati criticized Israel's professed concern for Arab casualties in an occupied Arab region while relentlessly waging war on Palestinians. He emphasized that Israeli threats of widespread war will not deter the Lebanese from defending their land by all means permitted under international law. 

Mikati expressed gratitude to Arab and foreign nations for their efforts to halt Israeli aggression and urged the public to dismiss rumors aimed at instilling fear, describing Israel's psychological warfare as a tactic to undermine Lebanese morale.

Lebanese political sources acknowledge Israel's determination to strike despite efforts to contain the situation. They question Tel Aviv's refusal to allow an international investigation into the Majdal Shams rocket incident by the UNDOF forces in the Golan Heights.