From 2006 to 2024: A decade of preparation reveals evolving military capabilities of Hezbollah and Israel

Report by Edmond Sassine, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

Ten months have passed since a limited conflict between Hezbollah, one of the region's strongest non-state combat organizations, and the Israeli army, one of the Middle East's most well-equipped and armed military forces. 

What if this conflict escalates? What is Hezbollah's current military and operational status?

During the 33-day July 2006 War, Hezbollah showcased significant military surprises on the battlefield. 

One of the key elements was the "Kornet" anti-tank missile, which destroyed Israeli "Merkava" tanks in the Khiam plain and Wadi al-Hujeir, proving to be a decisive deterrent in the last two days of the war. 

Another notable weapon was the Iranian "Noor" or "C-802" anti-ship missile, which struck the Israeli warship "Saar 5" off the Lebanese coast.

In 2006, Hezbollah's fighting force was estimated to be a few thousand fighters, and their preparation for the unexpected war was brief. At that time, Hezbollah possessed a limited number of Iranian and Russian missiles and unprotected rocket launchers, lacking drone capabilities. 

Conversely, the Israeli army held air superiority, immense destructive power, and technological dominance, especially since Hezbollah lacked air defense systems.

Between 2006 and 2024, the landscape has changed. 

Hezbollah's combat-ready force has significantly increased, now comprising tens of thousands of well-trained and equipped fighters who have gained extensive battlefield experience in Syria against ISIS. Hezbollah now has eyes on the ground with various surveillance and attack drones that have proven effective in combat.

Hezbollah's arsenal has also expanded, now including Russian and Iranian surface-to-surface missiles, fortified launch sites, and tunnels. Crucially, they possess precision-guided missiles capable of striking across Israel, such as the "Fateh-110" missile, though experts stress the need to test their effectiveness.

In addition to precision missiles, Hezbollah has acquired more advanced anti-ship missiles to counter Israeli warships, boats, and submarines. 

The ten months of conflict have revealed that Hezbollah has ground-to-air missiles capable of downing Israeli drones, and it has fired rockets at fighter jets. 

Nevertheless, the specifics of their air defense systems, potentially including Russian, Chinese, and Iranian systems, remain unknown.

Despite these advancements, Israel maintains air superiority, greater destructive capacity, and effective air defense systems like the Iron Dome, which can intercept many missiles. 

However, Israeli missiles often reach their targets unimpeded. This air dominance is complemented by Israel's significant technological edge and use of artificial intelligence, which, along with security breaches, has created an extensive database about Hezbollah field commanders and carried out precise assassinations.

For 18 years, both Hezbollah and the Israeli military have been preparing for potential extensive warfare. Such a war would test the effectiveness, preparedness, and surprises each side has in store. One such surprise could be the possibility of part of the fighting extending into Israeli settlements.