Post-war reality: Hezbollah's capabilities between Israeli narratives and ground facts

Report by Wissam Nasrallah, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

Former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared on October 27, 2024—one month before the end of the 66-day war—that Hezbollah was no longer an effective force for Iran, claiming its senior leadership had been wiped out along with most of its missile capabilities.

When the war ended, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu struck a similar tone, suggesting Hezbollah had been crushed militarily. 

While few dispute the heavy blows the group sustained, the strikes did not stop with the war's conclusion. Over the following nine months, Israel carried out more than 500 air raids, killing over 240 people and destroying infrastructure.

Yet Israeli media headlines painted a more complex picture. 

The newspaper Maariv ran the headline: "Northern settlements at risk again: Radwan Forces plan to invade Israel." This came alongside articles acknowledging that Hezbollah still retained some military capabilities. 

Maariv reported that the group was rebuilding its elite Radwan unit, changing tactics, and preparing for possible operations in the Mount Hermon area, described as part of a swift Iranian move to shape the post-war narrative.

The paper quoted the Israeli army as saying it had killed around 5,000 commanders out of the 9,000 who were in Lebanon before the war, and that Radwan's ranks had been reduced from about 6,000 fighters to between 2,500 and 3,000.

How could a group whose leadership was decimated, whose missile arsenal was largely destroyed, and whose elite force lost more than half its fighters, by Israel's own account, still be in a position to launch an incursion?

Analysts point to two possible explanations. 

One is Israel's consistent promotion of a narrative that it remains under threat, justifying ongoing operations in Lebanon. The other is that Hezbollah is indeed restoring parts of its military strength, something the group itself does not deny. 

Whether, after such rebuilding, it could still inflict significant damage on Israel, and how much of its recovery Israel can disrupt, are questions only both sides can answer. If the answers emerge, they will likely come through force of arms.