North Carolina: Can Trump maintain his hold on the only swing state he won in 2020?

Report by Joe Farchakh, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, seven swing states, including Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will play a pivotal role in determining who reaches the White House.  

North Carolina, which allocates 16 electoral votes from a total of 538, is critical, with candidates needing at least 270 votes to win.

Historically a Republican stronghold, North Carolina was a fierce battleground in the 2020 election, where the Democratic Party narrowly lost by just 74,000 votes. 

The significance of this state is underscored by the substantial financial investments in advertising, making it the fourth-largest recipient of campaign spending, following Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia. Combined expenditures by the campaigns of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris exceeded $153 million.

The state is currently inundated with an aggressive wave of messages and television ads, alongside numerous visits from both Trump and Harris, as they seek to appeal to the independent voters who make up 36.11% of registered voters in North Carolina. 

Despite its traditional Republican leanings, the dynamics have shifted with President Joe Biden's withdrawal and Kamala Harris' candidacy, intensifying competition in the state. 

According to a recent poll by 538, Trump leads Harris by a slim margin of 1.3%.

For the Democrats, high turnout among Black voters will be essential for winning, while Republicans must continue increasing their voter registration numbers. 

Can Trump maintain his hold on the only swing state he won in 2020, or will the Democrats succeed in flipping it, complicating Trump's path to victory?