Amid recent escalation, can US pressure influence Israel’s strategy toward Lebanon?

Report by Bassam Abou Zeid, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

All available information since the rocket fire from southern Lebanon indicates that Israel’s threat to strike Beirut was serious. For this reason, President Joseph Aoun acted swiftly over the weekend, making calls to various parties involved in the Lebanese situation to prevent further Israeli escalation. 

These efforts, under U.S. pressure, succeeded in halting the wave of Israeli airstrikes.

Sources indicated that U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for the Middle East Morgan Ortagus is expected in Israel. However, reports of a visit to Lebanon remain unconfirmed, though some speculate it could take place after Eid al-Fitr. 

Meanwhile, Lebanon is closely watching U.S. efforts to resolve disputes with Israel, which has conveyed a message through American mediators that it will continue striking Hezbollah until the group fully complies with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. 

This stance is backed by clear U.S. support, as reflected in statements from American officials involved in regional affairs.

Sources from the ceasefire monitoring committee said investigations have yet to determine who was behind the rocket fire from Lebanon, calling the incident highly dangerous given that Israel’s response now relies on overwhelming force. 

The sources stressed that Lebanon must demonstrate to public opinion—and in the face of Israeli threats—the actions its army is taking in the south regarding Hezbollah’s weapons and infrastructure. This immense effort should be highlighted.

The sources also noted that work is ongoing to form committees addressing the remaining Israeli occupation, disputed points along the Blue Line, and detainees. 

However, discussions remain focused on the mechanism and composition of these committees. 

The French insist they should be purely technical, similar to the ceasefire monitoring committee, while the U.S. has not taken a clear stance on Israel’s proposal to include diplomats. Regardless of their composition, there will be no direct negotiations between the two sides.