Buffer zones and bombings: Israel's new strategy to pressure Lebanon

Report by Edmond Sassine, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi    

Israel is ramping up its pressure campaign on Lebanon, aiming to steer the country toward political negotiations through the formation of diplomatic working groups, according to reports in Israeli media.

One of the key narratives promoted by Israel is the creation of a new buffer zone south of the Litani River, resembling the so-called "security zone" it occupied before withdrawing in May 2000. That former zone stretched from the Hasbaya region up to Jezzine. 

However, analysts say the occupation is part of a larger strategy to amplify pressure on Lebanon, with the broader goal of securing a normalization or peace agreement.

Experts argue that Israel has little need for a permanent military presence in that area, given its ability to carry out airstrikes, raids, and even targeted assassinations in Lebanon—most notably in the heart of Beirut's southern suburbs—without facing any meaningful deterrence, either domestically or internationally. 

Israel currently maintains control over five contested border points and has already established several buffer zones along the border where Lebanese civilians are prevented from entering. It also monitors and controls all movements south of the Litani River.

Promoting this buffer zone is only one component of Israel's broader pressure tactics. 

Tel Aviv has also repeatedly hindered reconstruction efforts in southern border villages, bombing homes rebuilt by civilians after the war. These strikes have targeted prefabricated housing units installed in place of those destroyed following the ceasefire agreement.

In recent weeks, Israel has escalated its airstrikes and shelling, often citing vague claims about crude rocket launches by unidentified groups. 

Despite its technological capacity to identify attackers in past instances, including naming individuals responsible for drone or rocket attacks, Israel has refrained from doing so in these recent incidents. The pressure reached a peak with an airstrike that killed a target in Beirut's southern suburbs, widely seen as a message to Hezbollah.

According to statistics obtained by LBCI, the total number of Israeli violations since the beginning of the war has reached 1,726 airspace breaches and 1,426 land incursions. These attacks have killed 133 civilians and military personnel and wounded 329 others.

The Israeli pressure campaign is being reinforced by diplomatic efforts, with the United States reportedly suggesting that the monitoring committee overseeing the ceasefire implementation may no longer be necessary. U.S. officials are also said to be implying that Israel could be given a freer hand unless Lebanon engages diplomatically.

Israel's leverage also stems from its continued occupation of Lebanese territory and the detention of Lebanese nationals. Some observers believe the recent entry of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) fighters into the Lebanese border town of Hawsh al-Sayyid Ali was an additional pressure tactic aimed at both Lebanon and Hezbollah. 

With mounting military, political, and economic pressure, questions about Lebanon's ability to resist these multifaceted challenges are being raised. 

Will the blows Hezbollah sustained in the recent war and the absence of an effective deterrent lead Lebanon toward political and diplomatic negotiations?