Displacement amid threats: Lebanon-Israel ceasefire tested by violations and expanding buffer zone

Report by Wissam Nasrallah, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi  

A ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel entered into force at midnight on April 16–17, under a six-point framework issued as a memorandum by the U.S. Department of State. 

Weeks later, the deal appears increasingly fragile, with continued violations and deep uncertainty over its implementation.

The agreement has been widely viewed as open to interpretation, particularly regarding Israel's claim to the right of self-defense in response to what it describes as ongoing or imminent threats. While the deal stipulates a halt to offensive military operations inside Lebanon by land, air, and sea, it does not explicitly curtail that claimed right.

Within hours of the ceasefire taking effect, the Israeli army announced it would maintain its positions in areas it had entered in South Lebanon. Two days later, it outlined what it described as a "forward defense line" stretching along the southern border and extending into Lebanese territorial waters. 

The zone, later referred to by Israeli officials as a "buffer" or "yellow zone," spans roughly 55 towns and villages and has been largely emptied of residents, with reports of continued demolition of structures.

Since then, hundreds of reported ceasefire violations have included strikes and casualties affecting not only fighters from Hezbollah but also civilians, rescue workers, and journalists.

For its part, Hezbollah has not adhered to the pattern seen after the 2024 ceasefire, when it largely refrained from responding for months. Instead, it has continued operations, including the use of advanced FPV drones controlled via fiber-optic systems.

Displacement has expanded beyond the so-called buffer zone. Israeli forces have issued evacuation orders for dozens of towns across South Lebanon, including areas north of the Litani River and as far as the Sidon district and parts of the Bekaa Valley.

Despite a relative decrease in the intensity of fighting, the conflict has not fully subsided. Most displaced residents have yet to return home, either because their area falls within the buffer zone, remains under evacuation orders, or due to ongoing fears of renewed escalation.

The evolving situation has raised pressing questions about the future of displaced Lebanese people, particularly those whose villages have been heavily damaged or destroyed. Uncertainty surrounds whether and when they will be able to return, and whether reconstruction will take place.

For now, the outlook remains uncertain. 

The fate of the ceasefire, and the possibility of a lasting resolution, appears closely tied to broader regional dynamics and the trajectory of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel.