Ceasefire takes effect in south Lebanon, but key terrain dispute remains unresolved: what we know

Report by Petra Abou Haidar, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Since 6 p.m. on Saturday, the southern front has been calm after the Israeli army announced it had received instructions from the political leadership to cease fire, while continuing operations to eliminate what it described as “direct threats.”

No Israeli airstrikes or ground advances were recorded Sunday, except for the firing of two sound grenades in Kfar Tebnit and Nabatieh al-Fawqa, where Lebanese Army Commander General Rodolph Haykal was on a field visit to the area.

However, before the ceasefire took effect, one battle dominated the scene: the battle for Ali al-Taher hill. 

From a point in Nabatieh al-Fawqa, located on the southwestern slope of the hill, and from the road connecting it to Kfar Tebnit, the following field situation emerges: The Israeli army has taken control of a large part of Kfar Tebnit and advanced in recent days toward the southern outskirts of Nabatieh al-Fawqa. 

But has it actually reached Ali al-Taher hill from there? Military sources deny it.

This is the current situation on the ground: At first, it was believed that Israeli forces advancing from Kfar Tebnit would take the eastern route leading directly to the hill. 

However, they changed course due to Hezbollah fire and moved northwest toward Nabatieh al-Fawqa, located west of Ali al-Taher hill. They reached only parts of its southern outskirts and did not continue toward the hill itself. There, the Israeli force came under attack days ago, resulting in casualties.

What did Hezbollah use in what was described as its strongest operation?

Military sources suggest the weapon used in the operation was not a drone, but rather a guided “Almas” missile, a more advanced system than the Kornet missile in terms of range and precision. It is also believed to carry a more powerful warhead with greater destructive capability. 

Assessments indicate it struck a vehicle at the junction between al-Haykal and al-Burj, one of its most vulnerable points, which amplified the impact of the strike.

Other estimates suggested that Hezbollah used attack drones. Some media reports also indicated that the group modified certain suicide drones by equipping them with a warhead derived from the MILAN anti-tank missile, which carries about 1.8 kilograms of explosives and is estimated to be capable of penetrating up to 1,000 millimeters of steel.

Why is Israel focused on Ali al-Taher?

The site holds major importance for both sides. It is a large area believed to contain a network of tunnels, fortified positions, and a significant arsenal, surrounded by Hezbollah fire from multiple directions.

According to military assessments, full control of the hill would require encircling it from several axes through Nabatieh al-Fawqa, Kfar Roummane, and parts of the outskirts of Nabatieh city.

While the ceasefire appears to be holding on the ground, Hezbollah sources told LBCI that the group remains committed to it as long as Israel does the same. However, they reiterated their position that Hezbollah will not allow Israeli freedom of movement or violations of the ceasefire without a response. 

The sources also stressed that there will be no change in the situation in the south before Israel withdraws from all occupied territory.

It is unclear whether this agreement marks a real beginning toward consolidating a ceasefire on the southern front or whether it is merely a temporary truce agreed upon by the relevant parties ahead of the expected negotiations in Switzerland.