What comes after Ali al-Taher? Mapping out Israel’s next move in southern Lebanon

Report by Petra Abou Haidar, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Israel has completed the Ali al-Taher phase and withdrawn its forces toward the Shaqif area.

But what comes after Ali al-Taher? Are preparations underway to move toward the Iqlim al-Tuffah region, including Jabal al-Rihane, where Israel claims Hezbollah has major facilities?

The question is warranted in light of three developments: First, Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir announced the start of a new phase in southern Lebanon.

An Israeli report also said Hezbollah has been moving weapons, equipment, and commanders toward Iqlim al-Tuffah, specifically Jabal al-Rihane and Jabal Safi, which is the highest point in the area, with an estimated elevation of 1,400 meters.

Israeli airstrikes have also targeted al-Rafih and Sejoud in recent hours and days.

So what is the military interpretation?

A source following developments told LBCI that Israel’s current military deployment does not, at this stage, indicate an intention to launch a large-scale operation in Iqlim al-Tuffah. The source cited several factors.

First, Israel has linked its strikes on Sejoud to the launch of a drone from the area toward its forces.

Second, the current pattern of Israeli strikes indicates that they are concentrated on areas facing or near Israeli positions in southern Lebanon, resembling a protective belt more than preparatory fire for an offensive.

This assessment is consistent with Zamir’s remarks about establishing a line of positions that would provide defensive depth and freedom of action over an extended period.

Third, the Israeli military has pulled back offensive units.

The 146th Division, deployed in the western sector and part of the central sector, has withdrawn reinforcements and armored units, replacing them with an infantry and training brigade.

The 36th Division, deployed in parts of the central and eastern sectors and north of the Litani River, and which operated in Ali al-Taher, has withdrawn the 89th Commando Brigade and the 55th Paratroopers Brigade, replacing them with the 188th Armored Brigade.

The 210th Division, deployed in the east, has maintained its current deployment.

From a military perspective, the withdrawal of offensive units does not suggest preparations for a new ground offensive. However, with Israel, the scenarios remain open.

What if a decision is made to push deeper?

Geographically, a direct route from Ali al-Taher toward Sejoud, passing through Jarmaq, Aaichiyeh, Aaramta and Rihane, would be difficult. The route features deep valleys and rugged terrain, making any ground movement costly and slow.

This raises another possible flanking scenario toward the Western Bekaa along the following axis: Ali al-Taher, Dibbine, Blat, Berghoz, Dlafy, el-Qatrane and Kfar Houneh.

From Kfar Houneh, three routes branch out: toward Rihane and Sejoud, toward Jabal Safi, and toward Ain Majdalain, Jabal Toumat and Jezzine.

Such a route would allow forces to encircle the Western Bekaa and Iqlim al-Tuffah from the Sejoud, Jabal Safi, and Toumat-Jezzine axes.

But such an operation would not be a repeat of Ali al-Taher.

It would mean moving deeper into more complex terrain and, if it were to take place, would be an entirely different ground operation in terms of its scale, cost, and duration.