With the expected official announcement of the opposition forces aligning with the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), and the former minister Jihad Azour's nomination for the presidency, the presidential file enters a new phase of confrontation, with the anticipated field being the Parliament.
However, the available information indicates that the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, will not call for a session promptly.
This article is originally published in, translated from Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar.
It appears that Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rahi had informed the French that he would engage in a new round of contacts with Muslim counterparts to persuade them to proceed with consensus, considering the existence of multiple candidates. He stated that he cannot endorse one candidate without the other if both receive significant support in Parliament. He is also incapable of pressuring either of them to withdraw. All he can do is intensify dialogue between all parties in hopes of reaching an understanding on a name that is not considered a challenge to any faction or sect.
For this reason, coordination meetings among the supporters of former minister Sleiman Frangieh have pointed out the necessity of giving some time for the tension accompanying Azour's nomination to cool down, especially since vote-counting at this moment does not yield consistent results. Many are betting that the quorum battle will reemerge at the forefront.
Opposition sources have revealed "coordinating meetings that took place in the past two days to finalize the announcement of endorsing Azour's nomination and sending a strong signal for Christian unity behind one name."
"The Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party aspired to hold a press conference that includes all the forces endorsing Azour's nomination or issue a joint statement signed by all," the sources stated.
However, this point has not been settled yet, revealing that "the most acceptable scenario so far is to announce Azour's nomination from the residence of former opposition candidate MP Michel Moawad, who is supposed to read a statement announcing his withdrawal in favor of Azour, in the presence of representatives from the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party and Change MPs."
According to this scenario, the FPM is expected to announce its support for Azour independently. The process of scrutinizing the votes that the movement will mobilize in favor of Azour will begin amid some MPs insist on rejecting voting for him or Frangieh. These MPs have entered into a conflict with the head of the movement, MP Gebran Bassil, and it is still unknown how they will react if Bassil restricts the movement's stance to supporters without returning to them.
The past few hours witnessed an acceleration in the pace of the presidential movement after Patriarch al-Rahi's speech upon his return from Paris regarding "a move he will initiate towards all components, including Hezbollah."
This is especially significant as the details of the talk about Azour's nomination and the hype it generated confirmed that there is no possibility of achieving any positive breakthrough in the presidential file, according to prominent political sources who considered these developments as painting a grim picture awaiting Lebanon. Quoting a senior reference, they said, "what is happening does not only take us back to square one but makes things even gloomier."
Moreover, Al-Rahi met with Bassil on Friday and briefed him on the results of his visit to Europe, which raised concerns for some opposition forces, expressing fears that "Bassil would exploit the patriarch's call for dialogue to postpone the announcement of supporting Azour and gain more time as he had done repeatedly." He still calls for consensus and shows concern about confronting Hezbollah.
While sources pointed out that "the opposition is currently focusing on communicating with Sunni MPs to convince them of the Azour option," everyone is waiting for the position of the Progressive Socialist Party.
In addition, the sources revealed that "in the past hours, there has been continuous contact with the Democratic Gathering bloc MPs, causing great confusion within the Socialists." This coincided with information indicating that Walid Jumblatt, who strongly supports Azour, is currently considering his stance concerning the significant challenges and his fear of Azour's transformation from a settlement candidate into a challenging candidate. Jumblatt still prefers not to side with anyone.
In this context, well-informed sources mentioned the visit of former minister Ghazi Aridi to Ain al-Tineh, where he met with Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri before the bloc announces its final stance after a meeting scheduled for next Tuesday.