Very few have dared or claimed to be knowledgeable about what Le Drian can do in the coming weeks, as per his earlier promise to return to Beirut in September.
This was before they were surprised by the series of messages he directed to the Lebanese deputies, under a new classification that raised questions about his intentions behind the step he took in mid-August. These messages have heightened the mystery regarding the mechanism he will later adopt in approaching the presidential file, especially as they delved into the list of names his messages targeted and the chaos they caused in some parliamentary blocs that became "fractured" due to these messages.
Amidst the flood of surprises that created doubts for some parliamentary forces, it does not appear that anyone interfered with Le Drian or any member of his team except Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri.
The latter was compelled, in light of what happened, to leak a set of observations, most notably his indication that what had previously been agreed upon cannot lead to the representation of more than 15 political poles or parliamentary parties in any potential dialogue, without specifying what might lead to its identification, form, and timing, as long as its content is confined to what Le Drian meant in his essential questions.
For, the moment he touched upon the President's qualifications and his action plan for the next six years, he summarized the potential roadmap for any possible understanding that might lead the Speaker to invite the thirteenth round of presidential election sessions, including the agreement to hold successive sessions until his election.
Therefore, questions were raised about the place that might host the dialogue, whether it would be in the Nejmeh Square or in any other place Le Drian chooses, whether it would be at the Pine Palace or elsewhere.
Additionally, questions were raised about its form, whether it would be a collective dialogue or in separate meetings as demanded by opposition forces, resembling the approach he took in his previous two rounds.
This came after they rejected any inclusive table that would bring them together with representatives of parliamentary blocs, and their insistence on individual, bilateral, or trilateral dialogues, to shorten the consultation phase to at most two or three days, before deciding on the date of the new election session.
These conditions could be added to what the Free Patriotic Movement has stipulated, namely that the Speaker of Parliament commits in advance to issue this invitation, regardless of the results of any dialogue or negative or positive consultation process.
About these observations received by the French embassy on behalf of Le Drian personally, doubts were raised about the messages of the French envoy, and some opposition forces considered them to constitute a departure from what was concluded in the "Doha Quintet Meeting" on July 17th last year.
This was especially due to his disregard of the observations he received, comparing them to the initial version of his initiative. This was especially notable in terms of the rejection by the majority of the meeting's members of any form of dialogue proposed by him before the election of the president.
Therefore, diplomatic sources closely connected to the ongoing communication efforts revealed that Le Drian, who has been informed of the matter, conducted a series of consultations with representatives of the five member countries of the "Paris Quintet" in the past few days, to prove his innocence from these allegations. He insisted in his communications on his commitment to what had been decided, clarifying that his recent initiative was not conducted outside the limits set by the meeting.
Based on this, the same sources added that Le Drian did not deviate from the authorization he received from the "Doha Meeting" and remained within it by continuing the steps he initiated in his first round in June of the previous year. As a result, he made a significant adjustment to his previous strategy when he reduced the number of meetings and visits in his second round between the 25th and 27th of July last year. He excluded leadership figures not involved in the election process, focusing on blocs and independent deputies concerned with the selection of the president in the ballot box only, excluding others from influential forces in the event, whether they were governmental, political, party-related, or spiritual.
Based on the aforementioned observations, political and diplomatic circles interpreted these developments as negative indicators, with the consensus that the outcome cannot be speculated upon but will likely lead to more signals that Le Drian's mission is encountering difficulties beyond what was anticipated. It appears that he will construct his forthcoming strategy based on a series of steps he initiated with the parties of the "Doha Meeting," seeking support and maneuvering in the direction of some regional forces, perhaps just as he would internally.
Hence, it has been leaked to certain party forces that a Qatari delegation has arrived in Beirut to conduct negotiations, a practice that had been occurring secretly since the end of the mission of their previous ambassador in Beirut, Ibrahim bin Abdulaziz Al-Sahlawi. Among the delegation are diplomats and security officials who will be alongside the new Qatari ambassador, Sheikh Saud bin Abdulrahman bin Faisal Thani, once he officially assumes his duties upon the conclusion of the presidential vacancy. He was appointed by the state's Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, as an extraordinary and plenipotentiary ambassador to Lebanon on July 25th of the previous year, but he has not yet assumed his responsibilities.
Regarding the Qatari movement, the same diplomatic sources anticipated a new wave of US diplomatic activity in Beirut, initiated by Ambassador Dorothy Shea. This is alongside the newly appointed French Ambassador, Hervé Magro, who has embarked on an exploratory tour and introductions, starting with Caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib.
This tour has also included meetings with both Speaker Nabih Berri and Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati up to the present and is set to continue in the coming days with meetings with party leaders and spiritual figures.
The aim is to approach the Lebanese reactions with more precision, in light of the rare responses received thus far from certain parliamentary blocs and figures who are responsive to the content of Le Drian's messages.
Given these developments, it seems difficult to predict or determine any forthcoming steps that Le Drian might take. The country is approaching the presidential deadline amid a complex web of diplomatic, political, and parliamentary avenues that the month of September holds, without any clear direction.
Hence, anyone claiming to be capable of predicting Le Drian's actions from today onwards is merely speculating, and as such, it should not surprise anyone to hear various scenarios, narratives, and fictitious leaks that reflect desires and wishes but lack any substantive information.