Hezbollah's strategic calculations: Navigating political 'minefields' after Saleh al-Arouri's assassination

In an analysis of the events, a political source told Al-Joumhouria that the assassination of Saleh Al-Arouri in the southern suburbs of Beirut has put Hezbollah in a delicate position.

This article was originally published in and translated from the Lebanese newspaper Al-Joumhouria. 

The party does not seek a wide-scale war with Israel, and this confirms its commitment to the rules of engagement since October 8th, limiting its confrontation with Israel to the southern border region. 

It avoids any military move that could disrupt the internal situation in Lebanon. 

The assassination has presented Hezbollah with a challenging choice - to fulfill the promise made by its Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, to retaliate against any assassination of a Lebanese, Palestinian, Iranian, or Syrian figure in Lebanon or to decide to contain the situation and respond "selectively."

According to the source, the significant challenge for Hezbollah, even if it is committed to responding to any assassination, is that "it does not swim inside Lebanon in a sea that covers any step it takes."

The Lebanese society is "vertically and horizontally" divided between those supporting Hezbollah's actions and those refusing to engage in this war, especially after the "October 7th" operation and Hamas storming into the Gaza envelope's settlements.

Al-Joumhouria asked a high-ranking official about Hezbollah's possible responses, and he stated, "Under any circumstances, the party's response is inevitable. The party cannot let this assassination pass without a reaction."

"It will have its timing and determine the time and place to 'inflict pain' on Israel. However, in my opinion, this response will be calculated and will miss the opportunity for Israel to achieve its goal of destabilizing Lebanon," the official added.