Pakistan parliament dissolution expected amidst political uncertainty

Pakistan's parliament is expected to be dissolved on Wednesday, paving the way for a government to prepare for elections from which former Prime Minister Imran Khan is likely to be absent due to his recent imprisonment.

The country has been in crisis since Khan, one of the most popular politicians in the country, was removed from power through a vote of no confidence in April 2021. The crisis escalated last week with the imprisonment of the former cricket star, who began serving a three-year sentence for corruption charges.

Khan's lawyers have filed an appeal against the sentence. If the sentence stands, the 70-year-old former prime minister will be barred from contesting elections.

According to the law, elections must be held within 90 days of the parliament's dissolution. However, the government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has hinted that the elections might be postponed.

Despite being in power for 18 months, the coalition of traditional parties that came together to remove Khan has not gained widespread popularity. The coalition is grappling with economic challenges despite an IMF loan, rising inflation, and unemployment. Industrial activity has declined due to foreign currency shortages.

Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, the head of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, said that "tough economic decisions are often unpopular and require a longer government tenure to effectively implement."

He pointed out that "these elections are important because they will give a new government a five-year term, which means they will have the mandate to make critical decisions that are vital for economic recovery."

**Questions about the Timing**

Rumors about the possible postponement of elections have circulated for months, given the crises the country is facing in terms of security, economy, and politics. These speculations were strengthened by the release of the latest population census data last week.

Justice Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar told a local TV channel that electoral constituencies might need to be redrawn based on the new population census. He warned that this could lead to a delay in the elections. He hoped that the postponement would not exceed "50 to 60 days."

Michael Kugelman, the director of the South Asia program at the Wilson Center in Washington, believed that postponing the elections could provide the ruling coalition's main partners, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Pakistan People's Party, with time to strategize against Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.

Kugelman added, "But in reality, delaying the elections could simply lead to more popular anger and give momentum to the opposition, which has suffered from repression for months."

The military plays a role behind the scenes in any electoral process in Pakistan. The institution, which has executed at least three successful coups since the country's independence in 1947, wields significant political influence.

Military support has always been pivotal for the stability of any Pakistani government, even though the military consistently denies playing any political role. However, the widening gap between Khan and senior officers in the world's sixth-largest army complicates his return to power.

Khan came to power in 2018 with the military's support and was ousted in April 2022 through a parliamentary vote of no confidence due to disagreements with senior officers over appointments and foreign policy, according to analysts.

Khan was briefly detained in May in the same case. Following his release, his party faced a security crackdown involving thousands of arrests and reports of intimidation and suppression of journalists.

The reaction to his latest detention has been fundamentally different, with limited and scattered protests reported. Thousands of his supporters were detained as part of a security campaign that targeted his supporters and the Tehreek-e-Insaf movement in recent months.

Kugelman cautioned that the interim government faces a tough task in the coming months. Its biggest challenge will be "to remain above the fray of partisan conflict and not get dragged into the political battles between politicians and the military."

He added, "In sum, this is a phase of extreme polarization and divisiveness, and it's not an environment in which an unsavvy government can easily operate."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFP