Erdogan's New Term: Navigating Stability in Turkish-Arab Relations and Tensions with Europe

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan begins his third term with more stable relations with Arab countries, especially those with which Turkey's relationship has been tense, namely Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

From Turkey's incursions into Syria, fighting Kurdish militants in Iraq, and supporting the Government of National Accord in Libya, Erdogan has demonstrated his military prowess both within and beyond the Middle East. Furthermore, Erdogan has been at odds with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt due to his support for Islamists following the Arab Spring.

However, with the majority of the uprisings having ended and the Muslim Brotherhood weakening across the region, combined with Turkey's economic crisis, the areas of disagreement between Turkey and these three countries have significantly narrowed. About two years ago, Erdogan mended his country's relations with the UAE and Riyadh, the latter depositing $5 billion in the Turkish central bank following the reconciliation.

Turkey's relations with Egypt have also been improving, after years of tension due to Ankara's opposition to the army's overthrow of President Mohammed Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, in 2013. Last March, the Turkish Foreign Minister visited Cairo for the first time in a decade, and prior to that, Erdogan shook hands with his fiercest adversary, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, on the sidelines of the World Cup opening ceremony.

All this points to more peaceful and understanding Turkish-Arab relations, in line with the zero-problems policy adopted by several Arab countries in the region. But, will this tranquility in Turkish-Arab relations extend to Turkey's relationship with Europe?

Between Turkey and Europe, there are specific issues related to immigration, security, particularly in relation to Ukraine, energy, and the relationship with Russia. However, analysts have warned of one point that could ignite Turkish-European relations - the Greek-Turkish tension with Turkey insisting on continuing gas exploration in the Mediterranean Sea.

As for the relationship with Russia, many believe that Erdogan's victory in a new presidential term guarantees the continuation and enhancement of the existing understandings between Moscow and Ankara, reached after a tough process involving the bilateral relationship, particularly due to the Syrian and Ukrainian crises.

Erdogan's closeness to Putin did not prevent his rival, Biden, from congratulating Erdogan on his victory. In his congratulatory tweet, Biden said he looked forward to continuing to work with Erdogan as NATO allies on bilateral issues and common global challenges.

A different phase in form and substance awaits with Erdogan for the next five years... It's clear that the old-new Turkish President knows well how to navigate through challenges...