Understanding Israeli Strategies: Insights into Cairo Negotiations

News Bulletin Reports
2024-02-13 | 11:37
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Understanding Israeli Strategies: Insights into Cairo Negotiations
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3min
Understanding Israeli Strategies: Insights into Cairo Negotiations

Amid internal disputes, the heads of Mossad, David Barnea, and Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, participated in an Israeli delegation in Cairo on Tuesday for talks on the hostages exchange deal. 

Barnea and Bar brought forth a draft of new ideas reached between Benjamin Netanyahu and his ministers on one side and Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot from the national camp on the other.

The details of the draft have not been disclosed, but according to Israelis, it is flexible and may overcome obstacles to progress toward an agreement resulting from two plans.

What is the foundation of the official Israeli draft, and what do the two plans say?

Netanyahu's plan aims to achieve the objectives of the war and normalization with Saudi Arabia. It involves a significant bet on a military operation starting from Rafah. 

Even if it does not lead to the assassination of Hamas leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, its quick resolution will undermine the movement's stance and pave the way for a prisoner exchange deal before the upcoming Ramadan, likely in March. It will also allow Israel to make decisions about the "day after" the war from a position of strength.

The only obstacle to this plan is fighting in Khan Younis, as dismantling Hamas there and evacuating Rafah would require several weeks, according to Chief of Staff Hertzi Halevi.

Gantz and Eisenkot's plan, on the other hand, seeks phased victories within a long-term ceasefire, including implementing a prisoner exchange deal and dismantling Hamas's military capabilities to achieve security for the residents of the north through a diplomatic agreement with Lebanon.

The plan calls for implementing the US demand regarding Gaza's fate after the war and achieving a diplomatic settlement with Lebanon, leading to normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia after Israel pledged to negotiate the establishment of a Palestinian state.

This plan also ensures Israel's freedom to defend its security through military and intelligence operations within the Gaza Strip, posing a challenge to Netanyahu's plan, which relies on a harsh and swift battle in Rafah.

From these two plans emerged Israel's draft for the Cairo talks. While its clauses are secret, Rafah and its residents will bear the cost.
 

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Israel

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