Mixed expectations: Israeli proposal for prisoner exchange deal awaits Hamas' response

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

Israel is awaiting Hamas' response to a proposed prisoner exchange deal brokered by Egypt, with expectations ranging from cautious optimism to skepticism. The proposal includes a ceasefire and not an end to the war, as some of its provisions mirror the recent agreement with Lebanon.

Hamas has yet to issue a formal reply, while the Israeli government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not indicated a broader desire to end its military campaign in Gaza. 

The Israeli government submitted the proposal to Egypt, reportedly revising its initial demands. Initially seeking the release of 33 live hostages in the first stage, the Israeli military now acknowledges that over 100 hostages held by Hamas are likely deceased with their remains potentially to be returned to Israel.

Under the deal, Israel would release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including those serving life sentences, in exchange for each Israeli hostage. 

However, it remains unclear whether the agreement includes prisoners captured after October 7, many of whom are high-ranking Hamas operatives with uncertain fates.

Israeli optimism about the deal is tied to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's efforts to leverage shifting regional and global dynamics.

Reports suggest that the Egyptian-mediated proposal has advanced significantly, with Israeli officials interpreting its announcement as a potential indication of Hamas' approval, despite the absence of a war-ending clause.

Consequently, the Egyptian proposal includes three key points.

The first point is the gradual release of prisoners. Israel would release Palestinian prisoners based on criteria to be determined during negotiations, while Hamas releases live hostages in phases.

The second point of the proposal includes an increase in humanitarian aid. Daily humanitarian aid to Gaza would increase to 350 trucks.

The third item is the reopening of the Rafah border crossing under the administration of the Palestinian Authority.

Nonetheless, Netanyahu has reportedly rejected any involvement of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza's governance, making the third provision a major stumbling block.

As Hamas considers the proposal, Israeli sources have indicated their delegation's readiness for another round of negotiations, likely to be held in Doha, according to Reuters.