From Gaza to Ukraine: Are global trade corridors fueling deeper rivalries?

Report by Toni Mrad, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Do you know what's behind the war in Gaza? Or the reason for the conflict between Ukraine and Russia? Some observers trace these wars back to a global rivalry between two competing trade initiatives: one led by China—the “Silk Road”—and the other backed by the United States—the “India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor.”

At first glance, this analysis may seem unconventional. But some argue that many of the wars and conflicts unfolding around the world today are tied to a deeper struggle over trade routes and economic influence among major powers.

To break it down: there are two key global trade projects. The first is China’s Silk Road, formally launched in 2013 as the Belt and Road Initiative. It’s a vast economic and strategic plan aimed at linking China to Europe via Asia and the Middle East.

The second is the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor, which was formally introduced during the 2023 G20 summit. This initiative seeks to establish a trade corridor connecting India to the Gulf and Europe through the Middle East.

But is it accurate to say that many of today’s wars are connected to the rivalry between these two trade routes?

Take Gaza, for example. The war didn’t erupt directly because of this rivalry, but the conflict became an indirect factor in Israel’s military campaign.

Put another way, the war in Gaza effectively froze progress on the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor. It became nearly impossible for Saudi Arabia to move forward with normalization or economic cooperation with Israel under current conditions.

More broadly, the rivalry between the Chinese and Indian trade corridors helps explain why some countries have backed different sides in the conflict.

India supported Israel, a position interpreted as an effort to protect its trade project from derailment. In contrast, China expressed support for the Palestinians—seen by some as an attempt to undermine the Indian corridor in favor of its own Belt and Road Initiative.

Another example is the war in Ukraine, which has also disrupted China’s Silk Road. The conflict weakened the initiative and forced China to alter its routes. Prior to the war, some Chinese goods passed through Ukraine en route to Europe. That route has been completely halted due to military operations and instability.

This disruption created new space for competing projects, including the Indian corridor, to gain ground.

Ultimately, when a war breaks out, the geopolitical dimensions—especially those tied to global trade routes—should not be overlooked.