Israel’s Lebanon escalation exposes deep rift over war goals and US diplomacy

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Israel's latest escalation in Lebanon appears to be driven by two factors: the killing of five soldiers, including two officers, in less than 24 hours, and efforts to obstruct the U.S.-Iran agreement, which would ultimately require Israel to implement a ceasefire and withdraw from Lebanon. 

The next phase of the process was expected to begin on Friday.

The escalation appears aimed at buying time to establish new facts on the ground that could lead to understandings on two demands Israel seeks from Lebanon: maintaining a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon and preserving freedom of operation for Israeli aircraft in Lebanese airspace.

During an assessment meeting on Friday with his defense minister and military chief, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened that Lebanon would pay a heavy price and rejected any discussion of a withdrawal from Lebanese territory.

The consultations followed a meeting of the security Cabinet on Thursday evening that failed to reach a final decision on Lebanon in light of recent U.S. positions.

However, Defense Minister Israel Katz revealed the military's intentions, saying it seeks to remain deployed from the coast to Beaufort Castle.

The Cabinet's failure to settle on a policy stemmed from a divide between two approaches.

The first favors distancing Israel from the United States and taking independent steps to achieve its objectives in Lebanon, including maintaining control until Hezbollah is disarmed and removing restrictions on strikes targeting Beirut's southern suburbs, Beirut, and other areas of Lebanon. This approach has been most strongly advocated by far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

The second approach, represented by Netanyahu, favors reaching an understanding with Washington on a new strategy that guarantees border security and the safety of residents in northern Israel by keeping certain areas under Israeli control.

Before Netanyahu's escalation, the military establishment had expressed reservations about the political leadership's position, which in recent days had partially accommodated the requirements of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding by limiting the use of force to cases involving a direct threat to soldiers.

As a result, the military's ability to prevent Hezbollah attacks was reduced.

Washington's pressure on Tel Aviv to safeguard its agreement with Tehran has caused disappointment in Israel, which is trying to use the postponement of the Switzerland meetings as an opportunity to persuade the U.S. administration to adopt a new strategy that it wants implemented in Lebanon.