Lebanon-Israel negotiations face deep divide over disarmament and withdrawal—can the gaps be bridged?

Report by Lara El Hachem, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Everything indicates that negotiations between Lebanon and Israel are difficult and could take months. This is what President Joseph Aoun revealed, saying that they may be delayed or fall short of achieving their objectives, but that they are ongoing with goals that do not align between the two sides.

Washington and Tel Aviv want to disarm Hezbollah at any cost, even under fire and occupation, while the Lebanese state conditions any agreement on a ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal as a basis for implementing the army’s plan to restrict weapons.

The plan, which requires time to implement due to the mountainous nature of southern Lebanon, was highlighted by Aoun, who expressed support for the army and said it has fulfilled its duties south of the Litani River. 

He noted that rockets launched at the beginning of the war came from north of the Litani River, adding that the army has never said the area was free of weapons, but rather that it is under its operational control.

Aoun’s remarks came as pressure on Lebanon increased ahead of Tuesday’s negotiating session, while the southern suburbs of Beirut were again drawn into escalation after Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he had instructed strikes on targets there, hours after a proposal by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was revealed. 

The proposal called for Hezbollah to halt all operations in exchange for Israel refraining from striking the southern suburbs.

The disclosure of the U.S. proposal came hours after Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri announced his readiness to guarantee a ceasefire that Hezbollah would immediately commit to, while raising a key question: who guarantees Israel if Hezbollah complies?

A U.S. official said Berri’s remarks disappointed Washington. 

The Amal Movement-Hezbollah alliance said the Israeli escalation is coordinated with the United States.

They argued that Netanyahu’s threat to strike the southern suburbs came hours after Rubio’s proposal was revealed, suggesting that the aim is to hold Hezbollah responsible for any strikes on the area. They added that, in their view, the escalation is linked to stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations after talks in Islamabad succeeded in insulating Beirut and the southern suburbs from escalation.