What happens to Lebanon-Israel talks after Israel's election?

Report by Toni Mrad, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

The outcome of Israel's upcoming election could have a direct impact on the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations that began in April, with several scenarios emerging depending on who will form the next government.

If Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power, Israel could maintain its current approach of linking a withdrawal from Lebanese territory to the disarmament of Hezbollah and the dismantling of its military infrastructure. Netanyahu recently said Israel would remain in what it calls a security zone in South Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed. Under this scenario, negotiations could continue, but a rapid breakthrough would remain unlikely.

A second scenario would see the opposition take power, whether under former military chief Gadi Eisenkot or former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. A change in leadership would not necessarily mean a change in Israel’s security policy toward Lebanon. 

Eisenkot, like Netanyahu, supports maintaining a security zone inside Lebanese territory, arguing that disarming Hezbollah is a long-term process that would require the involvement of a multinational force. Bennett has also backed keeping the security zone in South Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, while calling for economic and diplomatic pressure on the group alongside support for the Lebanese government. He has gone further by warning that Israel could directly strike Iran if Hezbollah launches an attack against Israel.

The third scenario is an inconclusive election that fails to produce a coalition capable of quickly forming a government. Israel could then enter a period of political consultations and deadlock, delaying key decisions on the Lebanon file. Military and technical meetings could continue in the meantime as the sides await the formation of a new government.

However, political paralysis would not necessarily translate into a military lull. According to some observers, Israel could continue carrying out strikes in Lebanon and potentially escalate its operations even while the political process remains stalled.

One factor could ultimately prove decisive regardless of who becomes Israel’s next prime minister: the United States' stance. Washington is sponsoring the negotiations, and its ability to bridge differences and exert pressure on both sides to implement their respective commitments could play a key role in determining whether the talks make meaningful progress.