After Thursday's statement by Palestinian factions rejecting any negotiations regarding the exchange of Israeli detainees in Gaza with Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons, except after a comprehensive cessation of Israeli aggression, everything is now contingent on a ceasefire.
This article was originally published in and translated from Lebanese newspaper Nidaa Al-Watan.
This aligns with the Palestinian demand supported by Arab and some Western countries to halt the war on Gaza and the West Bank.
This includes the southern front of Lebanon, not to mention the tension in the Red Sea near Bab al-Mandab and other fronts open to all possibilities, including Iran's targeting of US bases in Iraq and Syria.
During her recent visit to Beirut on the 18th of this month, last Monday, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna advised Lebanese officials she met to repeat the warning about the escalation of the southern front.
Israel will not accept the continued "heating up" of the front as it is happening unless they do not link the situation in the south to the ongoing war in Gaza.
French diplomacy had been informed by Hezbollah that it would not discuss calming measures in the south before the war on Gaza ends, and there would be no talk with them on this matter until a ceasefire is achieved in the sector.
The party consistently emphasized in all its military statements since the clashes began in the southern front that its military targeting of Israeli army positions from Lebanese territory is "to support Palestinian resistance."
Therefore, it is natural for the party to link the cessation of its operations in southern Lebanon to a halt in the military aggression on Gaza.
This means that Colonna's wish to avoid linking the two fronts to prevent the war from expanding from Gaza to Lebanon is difficult, if not impossible, to achieve.
Washington, Paris, and other countries want a ceasefire on the Lebanese front as a guarantee to prevent the conflict from spreading, but they still support the Israeli army against Hamas.
Hezbollah responds by linking discussions on a ceasefire in the south to one in Gaza. In conclusion, all international efforts focused on preventing military confrontation on the southern front and expanding the war can be summarized.
The countries seeking calm in the south, with Lebanon and Hezbollah, arm themselves with implementing UN Resolution 1701 as a reference that can ensure calm.
Colonna was quoted as calling for a "mechanism to find a solution that paves the way for the consolidation of permanent stability in the south," but she did not present it in Beirut, which is supposed to emerge as a ruling based on what the international resolution stipulates, paving the way for its implementation.
Also, official information indicates that Colonna did not present what was rumored, that Israel's demand is the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces and its weapons 10 kilometers or more from the borders.
The application of the international resolution itself is clear and prohibits the presence of weapons and militants south of the Litani River.
In response to the official and political Lebanese argument that the application of Resolution 1701 depends on both sides, not just Hezbollah alone, because Israel has been committing thousands of aerial, ground, and naval violations since 2006, Colonna asked those she met in Beirut: If Israel stops its aerial incursions into Lebanese airspace and refrains from breaching the borders by land and sea, will Hezbollah withdraw its fighters and weapons north of the Litani River?
The official Lebanese response was initially principled, and it did not provide an answer on behalf of Hezbollah, convinced that what is required is the withdrawal of heavy weapons from border areas.
It simply reaffirmed the commitment to the resolution text and spirit, emphasizing that the area between the Litani and the borders should be under the responsibility of the Lebanese army and UN forces.
The response emphasized adherence to the 1949 Armistice Agreement with Israel.
Does Lebanon's commitment to it correspond to the Israeli side ceasing violations, solving the remaining six border points in dispute on the demarcated land borders, and withdrawing from the Shebaa Farms in the implementation of Resolution 425?
The official Lebanese position sees that Israel, by not fulfilling its obligations and provisions in the text of the resolution, provides a pretext for Hezbollah to violate it in turn, intending to link the conflict with it to keep the southern front in Lebanon open to all possibilities.
While waiting for clarification of the mechanism for implementing Resolution 1701 to ensure a return to calm in the south, there is currently only US pressure on Israel to refrain from igniting the front, keeping Lebanon safe from the flames of war.