Escalating tensions: The fragile balance in Israel-Lebanon relations

A senior official in a significant country recently informed his visitors that the data he possesses regarding the situation in the Middle East, especially in the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon, "does not reassure," as practically there is now significant difficulty or impossibility in establishing a Palestinian state, especially with about 800,000 settlers in the West Bank. Consequently, there is no longer a "realistic" possibility of establishing a Palestinian state on the ground. This is in addition to Washington's inability or "unwillingness" to restrain Israeli actions in the Gaza Strip, where Israel is currently implementing a plan in Rafah, the southernmost part of the strip, which was known to the major powers since October 7, 2023, and they have not been able to stop it until now.

This article was originally published in and translated from the Lebanese newspaper Nidaa Al-Watan.

The same senior official spoke months ago before diplomats during the early stages of the Israeli attack on Gaza following Operation "Tempest of Al-Aqsa," suggesting that Israel would not retreat from its plan to transfer Palestinians from Gaza to Sinai in Egypt or to any other region or country. He pointed out that the economic crisis Egypt is going through might push it towards settlements or "facilitations" "under the table" or that Israel, through military pressure, siege, and starvation, would compel Palestinians to storm the Rafah crossing towards Egypt even if Cairo opposed it. 

These facts are connected to the situation in Lebanon, specifically in the south, as Hezbollah links the cessation of war with Israel to the cessation of war in Gaza. The same official highlighted the danger and sensitivity of the situation in southern Lebanon. The information he received intersected with what Lebanese politicians conveyed, indicating that the data from the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, and the atmosphere within Hezbollah suggest that the "Party" does not want to escalate the war. However, more is needed regarding what Israel is planning.

The official also spoke about a possible scenario of what Israel might execute in Lebanon, explaining that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a delicate political situation within Israel that might push him towards escalation and conducting operations in Lebanon. According to the information and facts so far, it is unlikely that Israel's targeting of Lebanon and Hezbollah would lead to an invasion or a full-scale war. However, Israel would probably expand the scope, area, and type of strikes in Lebanon without limits. This is evidenced by the recent targeting in Nabatieh and then Kfar Roummane.

Despite these warnings, it seems that Hezbollah has not altered its approach toward the war in Gaza, which has prompted "the war of attrition" in the south. Informed sources on Hezbollah's stance indicate that there is "no retreat or discussion before the end of the war in Gaza," noting that "withdrawal to the south is entirely out of the question, at least for the time being." As for the solution to stop the war in the south and prevent its escalation, it remains the same for Hezbollah, which "does not care" about providing any guarantees to the Israelis. The same sources state: "If the war stops in Gaza, it stops in Lebanon."

Therefore, as long as Hezbollah insists on "no retreat" to the south, the scenario of "expanding the scope of Israeli strikes" may continue for months. It could escalate into a worse scenario if Hezbollah falls into the Israeli trap and "hands" Netanyahu the response he is waiting for to expand the war without any limits. Even though Washington rejects this war and pressures Netanyahu not to launch it, the United States, according to the same sources, will not be able to prevent Israel from "defending itself" or "eliminating" any threat to the settlers from the north, just as what happened in Gaza. Can Hezbollah "absorb" the Israeli strikes and respond within boundaries that do not provoke "Israeli madness" to the extent of declaring a full-scale war on Lebanon, as happened in July 2006, despite the heavy toll it incurs in terms of infrastructure, human lives, and its stance towards its environment?

Will Hezbollah be able to balance between continuing to "engage" Israel in support of Gaza and refraining from expanding the war, which is rejected by Lebanon and not "covered" by Iran, until the timing for diplomatic resolution arrives?