Upcoming US envoy visit: Will Israel's decisions and actions lead to its defeat?

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

As the arrival of US envoy Amos Hochstein in Tel Aviv is anticipated on Monday, Israel's War Cabinet is set to convene on Saturday evening to discuss responses to the escalating security situation on the northern border. 

The Israeli army's plan for a potential war with Lebanon is also scheduled for discussion during the weekly government session on Sunday.

Disagreements between the military and political institutions are intensifying. The military and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant support a war with Lebanon. 

However, the political establishment is cautious, adhering to a US request to first achieve the objectives in Gaza, including defeating Hamas and securing a prisoner exchange deal.

A security report, to be reviewed by the War Cabinet and presented to the government, highlights the Israeli army's unpreparedness for war with Lebanon due to a lack of combat units, depleted weapon stocks, and inadequate defensive systems. This leaves the home front vulnerable to significant and unpredictable risks.

According to the report, the military will first consider the army's plans, but execution requires international support and assurances of weapon shipments from Washington. Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi are scheduled to meet US officials in Washington to persuade them to expedite these deliveries.

A major challenge in any war with Lebanon will be the development of defense systems, which have so far failed to detect and intercept Hezbollah's drones and missiles that have inundated northern towns, causing near-total destruction in many border areas.

Parallel to the Lebanon issue, efforts to finalize a prisoner exchange deal are also at the forefront of political maneuvers. Tel Aviv has made it clear that the Israeli delegation will not participate in negotiations until Hamas agrees to the latest proposal and sends it back for Israeli review.

Despite this Israeli precondition, most of the governing coalition rejects the prisoner exchange deal, advocating for intensified fighting in Gaza and pressing Hamas, along with launching a war on Lebanon without considering US demands or waiting for a potential settlement in Gaza. 

Security experts warn that such actions could lead to disaster and defeat for Israel.