Iranian Presidential Election Heads to Second Round Amidst Uncertainty and Low Turnout

A report by Ahmad Abdallah, English adaptation by Nadine Sassine


It was a calm Sunday morning for Iranians after two busy days of voting and counting in the Iranian presidential elections, in which the first round failed to determine due to apparent Iranian divide. One side expects the second round to be similar to the first, while the other believes that next Friday will bring surprises.

In the first round, none of the candidates received an absolute majority to win the presidency in one round. The reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian led the race with 41.2% of the votes, followed by the conservative candidate Saeed Jalili with 35.6%. The third candidate, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, received 14.0%. Notably, voter turnout was at a record low, not exceeding 40%, which means that the majority of the Iranian public remained silent in the first round. All eyes are now on this majority, referred to as the "grey votes."

Both candidates are counting on these grey votes in the second round, particularly the reformist Masoud Pezeshkian. His conservative opponent, Saeed Jalili, is expected to take Ghalibaf's votes after the latter endorsed him, bringing Jalili's total votes to around 13 million, surpassing Pezeshkian, who led with just over 10 million votes. Will Pezeshkian succeed in winning over the grey votes and changing these numbers?

From today until Friday, there will be an intensification of election campaigns and increased efforts to attract the grey votes and form strategic alliances to secure the presidential position. This is to avoid the low turnout and the tense political atmosphere that prevailed during the first round, making the second round decisive for the Islamic Republic's political and economic trajectory.