Preemptive strike on Lebanon: Israel balances military readiness with diplomatic pressure to avoid war

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

Despite the insistence of the Israeli military on a preemptive strike against Lebanon, Israeli political leaders have heeded the request of US Central Command leader General Michael Kurilla to refrain from such an action. 

In response, the Israeli army has deployed a significant number of troops along the northern borders with Lebanon and Syria, fearing a potential infiltration attempt by Hezbollah, possibly aiming to abduct soldiers.

General Kurilla's efforts also focused on preventing a preemptive Israeli strike on the anticipated attack from Iran and Hezbollah, aiming to avoid a regional war. A substantial part of his discussions have been dedicated to coordinating defense efforts and planning a response if necessary.

The US lacks precise information on the timing and nature of the expected attack and cannot guarantee the formation of a broad regional alliance to counter the assault on Israel, similar to the coalition formed during the Iranian strike last April. 

The debate over a preemptive strike, attended by General Kurilla, followed deep disagreements between the political and military institutions in Israel. 

According to a military report monitoring the daily escalation on the northern front and the increased launch of drones and rockets, the only way to ensure Israeli deterrence is a preemptive attack on Lebanon, which Kurilla sought to halt.

The Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi held intensive meetings with the northern command, emphasizing the need for continued readiness, including rapid transition to multi-front attacks.

Amid multiple potential scenarios and growing anxiety, particularly following the talks held by the Russian National Security Council chief in Tehran, Israel is intensifying its offensive and defensive preparations. This development is seen as an indicator of the heightened risk of a regional conflict involving major powers against the United States.

In light of the escalating war atmosphere, Israel has kept the hostage exchange deal on its agenda. It announced that its delegation would soon travel for a new round of negotiations without specifying the time or location. 

Meanwhile, Tel Aviv is considering various proposals urging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to withdraw his new conditions for completing the deal, which Hamas has rejected.

One of the proposals includes an internal Israeli political deal in which the state prosecution would drop criminal charges against Netanyahu in exchange for his withdrawal of demands in the prisoner exchange and a ceasefire in Gaza, potentially paving the way to avert a regional war that no party desires.