Defining next steps: Hezbollah and Iran study US proposal for ceasefire

Report by Bassam Abou Zeid, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

Under fire, Hezbollah and its ally Iran are reportedly studying a U.S. proposal outlining terms for a ceasefire with Israel and a mechanism for implementing U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701.  

Reports from Al Jazeera indicate that Hezbollah has received the document and is currently reviewing it. Hours later, Ali Larijani, a senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, confirmed from Beirut that he had also reviewed the proposal.  

Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri stated that Lebanon's official response is expected early or mid-next week. 

However, sources confirm that the response will unlikely result in an immediate ceasefire. Instead, Lebanon's observations on the proposal will be relayed to the U.S. and then to Israel for further consideration.  

Will Israel perceive Lebanon's comments as a rejection of the U.S. proposal or as a constructive step toward ending hostilities?

Notably, Lebanon has not opposed the establishment of a monitoring committee for Resolution 1701, as outlined in the U.S. proposal. 

Instead, Lebanese authorities suggest integrating such a committee into an existing tripartite mechanism that includes UNIFIL, the Lebanese Army, and the Israeli Army, which traditionally meets in Naqoura. 

Lebanon has proposed expanding this mechanism to include U.S. and French representatives, echoing the monitoring group established under the 1996 April Ceasefire Understanding that included the U.S., France, Syria, Lebanon, and Israel.  

Sources familiar with the negotiations revealed that the proposed monitoring committee serves as an alternative to Israel's request for freedom of movement within Lebanese territory to ensure Hezbollah's compliance with Resolution 1701. 

The U.S. document reportedly includes mutual commitments from Lebanon and Israel to refrain from any ground, air, or maritime operations that violate each other's sovereignty.  

While these developments may suggest progress, they remain overshadowed by the broader geopolitical dynamics. 

Observers caution against premature optimism, drawing parallels to protracted negotiations over ceasefires and prisoner exchanges in Gaza, which often ended with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accusing Hamas of rejecting Israeli offers.  

Sources say that Netanyahu's ultimate objective remains the neutralization of Iran and its regional allies, from Hamas to Hezbollah. 

This broader goal suggests that any potential agreement with Lebanon could face significant challenges unless it is part of a comprehensive regional deal—which remains elusive for now.