US envoy Tom Barrack's Lebanon meetings: Real progress or uncertainty?

Report by Raneem Bou Khzam, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

Amid heightened tensions and political uncertainty, questions loom over whether Lebanon is heading toward further escalation or a potential diplomatic breakthrough following a series of meetings between U.S. envoy Tom Barrack and Lebanese officials. 

While some political sources described the talks as positive, skepticism remains over whether the momentum can translate into concrete de-escalation on the ground.

After a 90-minute meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Barrack described the talks as "great," with sources indicating the atmosphere was positive and a shift from the pessimism that dominated recent days.

Still, it is too early to declare a breakthrough. Some of Barrack's other meetings were reportedly less encouraging. 

According to attendees, the envoy was left with the impression that Hezbollah remains firmly opposed to any handover of weapons and appears more inclined to risk war than engage in a diplomatic compromise that offers no concrete guarantees.

Others who met with Barrack said he offered a hypothetical: if Lebanon requested a pause in hostilities and targeted killings and he conveyed that to the Israeli side, the likely response would be a flat rejection—possibly accompanied by a question: "Why should we give Lebanon such a pause?"

With details of the talks tightly guarded, the situation remains opaque. In the words of Speaker Berri's now-famous expression, perhaps the best way to describe the moment is with "optimistic pessimism."