The weapons question: Will Hezbollah's allies stick or shift?

Report by Joe Farchakh, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

As Iran continues to back Hezbollah against efforts to strip it of its arsenal, the positions of some of the group's Lebanese allies on the weapons issue are beginning to evolve.

Is Hezbollah losing political cover at a critical juncture?

Sources close to the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) told LBCI that the party's stance is not new, emphasizing that a national defense strategy has been a core demand of the movement since 2006. 

The sources stressed that the FPM has consistently called for the exclusive right of the Lebanese state to bear arms, while rejecting involvement in foreign agendas that undermine national interests. Preserving civil peace and stability remains its top priority, the sources said.

Among Hezbollah's allies, MP Tony Frangieh also signaled a shift. In a post on X, he declared support for a strong state that monopolizes all weapons. 

Does his position reflect the broader stance of the Marada Movement, led by his father, Sleiman Frangieh, or is it a personal declaration?

While Sleiman Frangieh has also long advocated for weapons to be limited to the state, he has done so with the caveat that the state must be capable of protecting Lebanon from Israeli threats. 

Meanwhile, Tony Frangieh sought to balance his stance by following up his post with another message describing Hezbollah's talk of a national security strategy as "an opportunity not to be missed." This appeared to reconcile his call for state sovereignty over arms with openness to Hezbollah's role in shaping defense policy.

However, Hezbollah sources noted that the group has already accepted in the ministerial statement the principle of arms being under the state's authority, but only alongside guarantees that Lebanon can defend itself against future Israeli attacks. 

The group's sources suggested that U.S. and Saudi pressure may have influenced some allies' recalibrated positions, though they stressed that Hezbollah has never relied solely on its allies for legitimacy. Instead, they pointed to the group's enduring popular base, reflected in the latest municipal elections.

The sources also recalled that Hezbollah's liberation of South Lebanon was achieved independently, not through temporary political alliances. Still, they argued that a unified national position remains the best way to counter Israel, which they accuse of exploiting Lebanon's internal divisions to deepen its crises.

Meanwhile, LBCI has learned that during his recent visit to Beirut, Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, met with Hezbollah's Loyalty to the Resistance bloc chief Mohammad Raad, senior Hezbollah aide Hussein Khalil, representatives of the Amal Movement, and Sheikh Ali al-Khatib, deputy head of the Higher Islamic Shiite Council. 

The meeting, according to sources, was intended to underscore Iran's ongoing support for Hezbollah and to reassure Lebanon's Shiite community that it is not abandoned.

Attention now turns to the Lebanese Army's plan, set to be discussed in the Cabinet on September 2. 

Can the government agree on a practical framework to ensure the state's monopoly over weapons, or will political divisions stall the process and risk dragging Lebanon into another conflict?