Recasting the political scene: Will a new Sunni power emerge in Lebanon's 2026 elections?

Report by Maroun Nassif, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi  

As Lebanon heads toward the 2026 parliamentary elections, political attention is turning toward reshaping the balance of power within key sectarian blocs. 

While international focus is expected to center on attempts to break the dominance of Hezbollah and Amal within the Shiite representation, a parallel effort is underway to build a unified and influential Sunni bloc.

The upcoming elections will allocate 27 seats to Sunni representatives, with the potential to rise to 28 if the six expatriate seats from the newly created 16th district are included. 

However, with the Future Movement's absence from the political and electoral scene, a void has emerged within the Sunni landscape that several figures are now seeking to fill.

Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari has been at the center of this effort, holding meetings in recent years with a wide range of Sunni parliamentarians—from members of the National Moderation Bloc, independents like Fouad Makhzoumi, Ashraf Rifi, and Ihab Matar, to former allies of the March 8 camp such as Faisal Karami and Hassan Mrad. 

The goal appears to be the consolidation of a strong Sunni parliamentary bloc that supports the exclusive authority of the Lebanese state over weapons and security, a stance that could command up to 20 seats, based on early studies.

However, Hezbollah and Amal may also seek to expand their limited Sunni representation. The Shiite alliance currently counts three Sunni MPs within its ranks and is reportedly exploring ways to increase that number in certain districts.

The real challenge, observers say, will lie in uniting the anti-Hezbollah Sunni MPs, many of whom come from vastly different political backgrounds. 

Some were formerly aligned with the Future Movement, others represent Change MPs, while a few had previously been close to Hezbollah and Amal.