Israel at ‘point of no return’: Is another Lebanon war inevitable? The details

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Israel’s opposition and governing coalition have reportedly reached a rare consensus that the situation with Lebanon has reached a point of no return and that another round of war is only a matter of time.

This conclusion came after Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid was briefed on intelligence reports containing claims by security and military agencies that Hezbollah is strengthening its capabilities and preparing to attack Israel, while the Lebanese state has failed to uphold the ceasefire agreement.

According to the Israeli report, the Intelligence Directorate and Northern Command have intensified efforts to monitor Hezbollah’s movements and its support from Iran. 

The report alleges that the group is building defensive systems north of the Litani River, in southern Beirut and the Bekaa Valley, while rebuilding its Radwan Force and attempting to recover weapons buried in bunkers previously targeted by the Israeli army.

In response to the report, Lapid called for keeping the option of a military operation against Lebanon on the table. 

Meanwhile, Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, speaking at a meeting of reserve force commanders, said that the reserves would be on the front lines of any potential conflict, declaring that the war is not over and that the army faces two choices: either achieve stability on all fronts or return to war until victory is achieved.

Zamir’s comments followed a joint assessment with the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, during which they discussed regional and broader security challenges.

The U.S.-Israeli coordination coincided with the announcement of the completion of a large military complex in northern Israel, built to reflect the combat environment in Lebanon, including Hezbollah’s deployment areas, tunnels, and terrain. The Israeli army has begun training there for various scenarios drawn from the last war in Lebanon and recent intelligence reports.

According to the report, the Israeli military bases this mobilization on the belief that Hezbollah is secretly increasing its capabilities in anticipation of a potential Israeli offensive that could significantly alter the group’s remaining military and political standing.